Optimal Choice Of The Operation Scheme Of Railway Luggage And Parcel Express Special Train Based On Traffic Volume Forecast

Along with the rapid economic development and the adjustment and upgrade of industrial structure, the demand of fast freightage grows rapidly, which is more diverse and individual. In order to meet the market demand and improve market competitiveness, railway luggage and parcel express special train as a new form of organization of fast freightage emerges. It has been the main form of railway package transportation for its long distance transportation, fast speed, large volume, high efficiency and simple forms of organization and other advantage. It is significant to study the method to design and optimize the operation scheme of the railway luggage and parcel express special train. The main contents include:Firstly, the railway luggage and parcel express special train and its operation scheme is introduced, which includes its history, organization features, operation principle, the principle of designing and influencing factors. Also, the existing operation scheme is listed.Secondly, the freight volume is predicted. We forecast the total demand with the use of a linear regression model and the weighted average development method to provide a reference for the next OD distribution forecast. Then, the luggage volume of arrival and delivery of railway baggage and parcel handling station is predicted with polynomial approximation method. We use the double-restriction gravity model to forecast OD distribution. The luggage volume of arrival and delivery and OD distribution are the data foundation of the operation scheme.Thirdly, On the basis of the freight volume forecast by the second step, we built an operation scheme model with the goal of maximizing the benefit of freight transportation. We built the model with three steps which are ascertaining the luggage volume, confirming the wagon path and designing the operation scheme. Then, we come up with the optimization of the model which is instead of a dual-objective programming model. The new model is with the goal of maximizing the benefit of freight transportation and minimizing the fees of the cargo owner.Fourthly, we collected the data of the luggage volume of Mei He Kou, Si Ping, Chang Chun, Shen Yang, Tong Liao,Ji Lin and the data of railway freight. We forecast the total demand of railway luggage transportation, the luggage volume of arrival and delivery of the ten cities and the OD distribution. Finally, a case study is performed using the data calculated by last step. In addition, we compare the payoffs of the model solving plan and the single set plan to prove the rationality of the model.