The Passenger Volume Forecasting Of Qinghai-Tibet Expressway Based On MD Model

Passenger traffic forecast is the prerequisite and basis for carrying out the evaluation of traffic status and comprehensively analyzing the necessity and feasibility of construction project.With the improvement of engineering technology and the need of economic development in Tibet,the construction of more convenient in the Tibet area-the expressway has become the inevitability of development.Datas show that trip into Tibet has become the main part of Tibet trip,by the Tibetan terrain,climate,altitude and other special factors,the passenger transport volume forecast has become more obvious complexity and unpredictability.There are many influencing factors of travel,and the impact mechanism of traveler is also complicated.This paper makes a systematic study on the influencing factors and influencing mechanism of the Tibet tour,and puts forward the MD model which is suitable for the forecast of the passenger volume into Tibet.Firstly,the paper summarizes the forecasting methods of domestic and foreign expressway passenger traffic,and set forth the domestic and foreign research results of MD model.Secondly,the basic principles,assumptions and forecasting steps of the MD model are briefly described.The concept,influencing factors and calculation methods of the time value,travel sacrifice,travel utility are analyzed and studied,to obtain the potential passenger turnover the obvious passenger rate calculation method and the final future passenger volume.Thirdly,through the collection of basic data and the investigation data of road OD survey and travel intention survey,this paper analyzes the characteristics of passenger into Tibet and the characteristics of traveler's choice of method,and summarizes the influencing factors of travel and method choice.And the adaptability analysis of the MD model is carried out.Finally,the Qinghai-Tibet Expressway planned is taken as an example to predict passenger volume into Tibet next year(2020),and verificat the validity of results.The results show that in 2020,the passenger volume into Tibet reaches 203.28 million.It can be concluded that the MD model is reasonable and reliable in predicting the passenger volume into Tibet.