Sensitivity Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Energy Planning In Low-carbon Urban Area

At present,with the acceleration of the development in our city,energy development situation of the city in our country is very serious.It is mainly manifested in: energy efficiency lags behind the advanced level of world,energy shortage has affected the development of Chinese city,energy structure is backward.Under the background of sustainable development,building a low carbon city,improving the use efficiency of energy and reducing the environmental pollution caused by the use of energy has become a global consensus.Urban planning is the most direct basis for guiding the development and construction of the city.At present our city planning to implement the concept of sustainable development remained mostly in the level strategy planning of city development,system planning theory and method suitable for low carbon city development is not yet mature in China.In the current urban planning,energy planning and urban master plan are two independent systems.In the process of making urban planning,planners consider the power supply system,heat supply system,gas supply system,but few comprehensive consideration of the city's energy problems.Through the research on the relationship between energy planning and city planning,this paper aims to get a clear relationship between energy planning and city planning as well as the combination of the two ways and paths.Through the analysis and summary of the main influence factors,the main planning contents,and the commonly used indicators of the typical model city energy,this paper extracts the typical influencing factors as the research model.And ensure that the factors are selected to focus on the practical dimensions,fully consider the planning stage,covering the planning,implementation and operation of the whole process of management.Based on this model,the qualitative evaluation of influencing factors is conducted by inviting the famous experts and scholars in China and the government managers.Sensitivity analysis of expert feedback evaluation using R data analysis software.The paper obtains the main factors from the sensitivity analysis results of design,technology and management professional background.Then establish a hierarchy to guide subsequent energy planning of low carbon energy-saving targets,provide countermeasures and suggestions for integrated energy planning of low carbon city: Emphasis on the policy and the master plan of the study;the "multi regulatory one" planning ideas;the three areas of low carbon direction control;to ensure that the planning,implementation and management of continuous process.And take the new campus of Tianjin University as a case study to explain the impact of factors on how to guide the various stages of energy planning for the actual project.