Risk Assessment Of Ship Oil Spilling Study Around The Zhoushan Sea Based On Gray System Model

With the rapid development of the international economy,the requirement for energy all over the world has been increased,and the marine trade over the world has also been rapidly developed.However,accompanied by the rapid development of the shipping-trade,the ships and navigable environment are becoming more and more complexity,so the oil spill accident has affected not only ocean ecology system,but also the social economic development and the human health.Therefore,the ship oil spilling risk assessment of scientific and rational and according take appropriate risk management measures,which has important practical for ensuring the safety of human been life and property and protect the marine environment.Zhoushan islands is located on the middle area of China coast line,in the northeast of Zhejiang province,take up the project sites of Hangzhou bay and Yangtze River Delta.As China's first islands district,Zhoushan islands play an important role in drive the economic the whole Yangtze river valley.Zhoushan islands are rich in biology resources and have a great important shipping-industry position.Once oil spill accident happened,it would inevitably bring serious damage to the ecological environment and directly affect the economic development of Zhoushan Islands.In this context,this thesis discusses the serious effects of oil spill on marine environment,biological,ecological,human health and regional ecology,different models in the study of ship oil spill risk assessment have been compared.and combining previous research we set up multi-level gray evaluation model and illustrated the model,This model use mathematical method to calculate the weight of each index relation to the upper target,for this method take into account the weight of the relative upper targets,which guarantees the objectivity of the evaluating results.We also illustrated the model with example of "Chun Yun" and "Sheng song gong128" ships,and the result is agreed with the practical situation.