The Vulnerability Assessment Of Energy System Under Climate Change In Beijing

The global warming and increase of the extreme climatic frequency/ intensity are the trends and characters of climate change,which not only cause the vulnerability of natural ecosystem,but also impact on the production,supply and consumption of energy systems.Especially,the extreme weather events seriously threat the safe and stability of energy system.At present,the research and case studies relevant to the vulnerability to climate change mainly focus on the natural ecosystems,such as water resources,agriculture and grassland at national and global levels.There is few research about the cities,which are highly concentrated areas of economy,technology,civilization and the main parts of energy supply and consumption.So it is significant to analyze of the climate change vulnerability of urban energy system in order to enhance the climate change resilience and sustainability of cities.Firstly,this paper analyzed the characters of climate change in the past sixty years(from 1951 to 2014)and the trends in the future in Beijing.The annual average temperature increased by 0.37℃/10 a.The annual precipitation and the days of annual precipitation in the plain area decreased by 14.34mm/10 a and 1.92d/10 a,respectively.The high temperature days increased by 0.2d/10 a and the longest sustaining high temperature days increased by 0.48d/10 a.Meanwhile,the air pollution is becoming serious because of global warming,population expansion,automobile exhaust emissions and so on.Then,this paper investigated and analyzed the current status of the supply,consumption and infrastructure of energy in Beijing.The results showed that Beijing is energy large consumption city,but its self-supplied energy only accounted for 2% of the total energy consumption.With the development of economy and society,the total energy consumption increased continuously and the structure of energy consumption in various industries has significantly changed.In 2014,the amount of energy consumption of the secondary industry,the tertiary industry and the residents’ living accounted for 29.2%,47.4%,and 22% respectively;the high-quality energy was up to 79.6%;the ratio of the secondary industry,the tertiary industry and the resident electricity consumption to the total electricity consumption were 35.8%,44.2%,and 18.1% respectively.The total consumption of thermal power is obviously increasing,and the energy consumption of heating building accounted for more than 50% in heating season.On the other hand,the maximum power load in winter was close to it in summer and the electric load appeared two peaks.There is a serious waste of resources because of central heating area 24 hours heating.The supply of natural gas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is adequate in non-heating season while it is short in heating season.Based on the theory of climate change vulnerability assessment in IPCC,an climate change vulnerability assessment model of the regional energy system was built,which included the assessment indexes with the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method and index system,the quantitative method of related data and the weight method of the indexes.Using the developed model,the climate change vulnerabilities of the energy system in Beijing were analyzed and evaluated in 2015 and 2030 respectively.The main results are the following:(1)The score of the temperature variability in 2015 is higher than it in 2030 by 0.05,but the scores of the precipitation variability,extreme cold weather and extreme heat weather are almost the same with climate change.(2)Compared to 2015,the scores of the sensitivity indexes about the population density and per capita electricity consumption were higher than them in 2030 by 0.1 and 0.03 respectively,while the score of the sensitivity about per capita energy consumption reduced by 0.08;(3)In terms of economy development,the scores of climate change adaptive capacity from the investment,per capita GDP,energy consumption per unit GDP were 0.7,0.8 and 1 respectively in 2030.Compared to 2015,only the score of the per capita GDP adaptive capacity increased by 0.4 in 2030;(4)In terms of infrastructure and technology,the scores of climate change adaptive capacity from the energy input dependence,non-carbon based energy ratio,energy diversification,energy supply quality,electric power structure and energy efficiency were 0,0.51,0.83,1,0.8 and 0.8 respectively in 2030.Compared to 2015,the scores of electric power structure,energy efficiency and non-carbon based energy ratio adaptive capacity increased by 0.1,0.1 and 0.15 respectively;(5)The scores of climate change adaptive capacity from economic development,environment and society,policy and information,infrastructure and technology were 0.83,0.96,0.73 and 0.66 respectively.Compare to 2015,the scores of economic development,infrastructure and technology adaptability increased by 0.13 and 0.06,respectively.At last,according to the results of the climate change vulnerability assessment of energy system in Beijing,combined with the international experiences,this study put forward the policies,measures and management suggestion in recent strategies and long-term strategies in order to enhance the energy system adaptability of climate change in Beijing.