Analysis Of The Changes Of Forest Resources And The Related Driving Force In Shandong Province

As an important composition of natural resources, the dynamic change of forest resources is influenced by many factors including the level of economic development. With a vast territory and a large population, the existing forest resources in China are still difficult to meet the growing needs of production in terms of quality and quantity. Study on the change trends of the forest resources and analyze its correlation with other social factors is one of the research focuses in the study of the relationship between the material civilization and ecological civilization. Moreover, it is helpful to explore the association between the social economic development and forest resources changes. In recent years, the industrialization level is rising with the rapid economic development in Shandong Province, which means the construction area is increasing and the agricultural land is gradually reduced; hence, the contradiction between people's needs and the land is becoming sharper and sharper such as the excessive consumption of the natural resources. In Shandong Province, forest resources have been seriously damaged, forest biodiversity is decreasing, and the ecosystem function is degrading, so how to find the balance between the economic development and the protection and utilization of forest resources is the key for the development of modern forestry. Based on the forest resource inventory of Shandong province and Environmental Kuznets Curve, the relationship between the forest coverage rate, forest growing stock and economic development is studied here. Also, the hysteresis effect of the influence of economics development on the forest resources was analyzed. According to the optimal model, the forest resources between 2013 and 2017 were predicted. The exploration of the association between the change tendency of the forest resources and the economic development provides a theoretical basis to improve the quantity of forest resources of Shandong Province and effectively carry out the work of forestry, as well as making scientific forestry policy.The research contents and results were summarized in the following:(1)Using the forest resource inventory data of Shandong province and the Environmental Kuznets Curve model, the relationship between the forest coverage rate, forest growing stock and economic development is studied. The coefficient is greater than 0.9 between forest coverage rate, forest growing stock and per capita GDP, suggesting a great correlation among them.(2)The hysteresis effect of the impact of economic development on forest resource was also analyzed. The results suggesting that the hysteresis effect varied with the two different explanatory variables; specifically, 2 years in the lag for forest coverage rate, and 7 years in the lag for the forest volume.(3)The results of the relationship between the forest resources of Shandong province in terms of forest volume and per capita GDP indicated that: During the underdeveloped economy period, there was a rapid growth of the forest volume because of a rare man-made destruction; however, people will only focus on the economic benefits and excessively consume the forest resources when the economic development reached a certain level, which will lead to a slow growth of the forest volume.Nevertheless, when per capita GDP reached 5000 yuan, the realization of the ecological and environmental protection will increase and will promote the growth of the forest coverage. By contrast, referring to the link between forest coverage rate and economic development, the results illustrated that a steady and slow growth rate between them was found and mostly, the measured value and theoretical value was consistent except a small fluctuation in some special stages, which suggesting that the with the economic development, the impact of per capital GDP on the forest coverage is decreasing. Also, this impact may disappear when the forest coverage reach a certain extent.(4)Comparison analysis was done for the measured and theoretical values of forest resources and also predicted the forest resources from 2012 to 2017. The results showed that the measured values of forest resources and the theoretical values were almost consistent. According to the predication result, the forest coverage rate will reach 17.97% and the forest stock volume will reach 437.99 million cubic meters in 2017.(5)Some theoretical suggestions were mentioned to continually improve the development of the forest resources in Shandong province with the growth of the per capita GDP. With the rapid development of the economics and the realization of ecological civilization, the forest resources in Shandong Province will experience a stable and sustainable development.