Study On The Change Of Cultivated Land Use And Driving Force In Sanya Rigion

The effect of land use on land resources is first reflected in the change of land resources.In recent years,population growth has been surging,and the encroachment of cultivated land is an important reason for the decrease of available land resources.The reduction of arable land will seriously affect the world's food supply.The characteristics of my land and resources can be summed up as"more than three",that is,a large amount,less farmland per capita,less cultivated land with high quality,and less development of reserve resources.Considering the requirements of ecological protection,the development of farmland reserve resources has been severely restricted,and it has been very limited in the future through the development of reserve resources.Our country is facing a contradiction that other countries cannot match.China implements the strictest farmland protection system,farmland protection has been the priority of land management work.Especially in recent years,the country put forward the new demand of scientific development,request to the concept of scientific development to guide the cultivated land protection,cultivated land protection gradually obtained the governments at all levels and the social from all walks of life,attaches great importance to and seriously,the cultivated land protection is increasing year by year.In the current rapid economic and social development,the harmonious development of man and nature get unprecedented attaches great importance to the background,the industrialization,the urbanization can't slow development,ecological environment and food safety requirements can not low,how to look for good development and protection of cultivated land balance,sanya,in the protection of development at the same time protect the limited cultivated land resources,is particularly important.This paper takes Sanya City of Hainan Province as the research region.By combining qualitative and quantitative methods,the paper conducted an in-deep analysis of the changes of farmland,and explored the main driving factors affecting the changes of Sanya farmland as well as their rules,so as to provide targeted farmland protection countermeasures.Based on the statistical data on land use of Sanya City from 2007 to 2016,combined with the main data source of remote sensing image,and supported by RS and GIS technologies,the paper analyzed the quantity,quality and spatial variation characteristics of Sanya farmland;the main driving factors affecting the changes of Sanya farmland were analyzed by method of principal component analysis,and multiple regression model was built to analyze the influence of main driving force factors on farmland changes;finally,grey forecasting model was used to predict agricultural acreage of Sanya City in 2025.The main research results of this paper are as follows:(1)During the 10 years from 2007 to 2016,the total arable area of Sanya has reduced 1018.35 hm~2from 24352.70 hm~2to 23334.35 hm~2,with a changing rate of6.4%,indicating that the farmland area shows an overall downward trend.Besides,farmland area per capita also shows a downward trend,with farmland area per capita declining from 0.046 hm~2 to 0.040 hm~2.All these demonstrate that farmland is decreasing rapidly,and the situation of farmland protection is not optimistic.(2)Driving factors affecting the changes of the use of Sanya farmland were determined through method of principal component analysis,and the structure of farmland use in Sanya has also been analyzed.There are three main driving factors affecting the changes of the type and structure of land use in Sanya,namely,economic and social integrative factor,tourism development and agricultural production.The changes of Sanya farmland use structure include the continued decline of woodland and arable land,and the sharp increase of garden land.The reasons that cause these changes are as follows:first,the urbanization area of Sanya has been increased due to the sharp increase of investment in fixed assets and the increase of non-agricultural population,so the area of land used for construction increased substantially,and the changes in population and agricultural machinery gross power directly led to continuous decrease of forestland and farmland;second,thanks to its geographical advantage,Sanya's tourism has been developed rapidly,so that input in ecological construction increased and area of park rose in a straight line.(3)Based on the correlation analysis of the relationship between main driving factors and the changes of farmland,the multiple regression model of the changes of Sanya farmland use was established,that is,F=0.7593*F1+0.13475*F2.The measurements show that there is a negative correlation between farmland area and gross population,proportion of agriculture and grain yields,and a positive correlation between farmland area and the total amount of grain,indicating that population and adjustment of agricultural industrial structure are the main driving factors of farmland changes.(4)With the help of grey system,Sanya farmland area is predicted to be22086.51 hm~2 in 2025,showing that arable land area will be continuing to decrease year by year,and the situation of farmland protection is severe.