The Risk Study Of Agrometerological Disasters Based On The Matching Data Of Villages And Towns

In the paper:The data fitting schemes are set up based on analysis of variation about meteorological data.According to the data fitting schemes,the software of System was developed.And the practical application results are reviewed and commented.The distribution characteristics of the five elements of air pressure,air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed and precipitation were analyzed by using the standard of 1981-2010,The results show that the change of pressure,air temperature and relative humidity are normal distribution;Wind speed distribution curve is the left too and rainfall Precipitation distribution curve is roughly as the index.Calculating correlation coefficient though 2007 to 2014 meteorological data.Combined with the distribution characteristics and correlation coefficient analysis,the pressure,temperature and relative humidity can be directly used in the linear equation,Fitting the meteorological data of township regional stations.Wind speed and precipitation need to do distribution transform.finally checking the villages and towns regional observation data of 2014.Only the weather data of the individual month exceeded the standard error of the instrument,Explain the fitting data is available.Among them The temperature data is accordance with the best,Basic error is within 0.2?;The fitting error of wind speed and precipitation has a great influence on the measurement of small observation.The System development combined with existing meteorological Business,With practical give priority to,Guarantee the fitting accuracy.The system includes system management and Collecting message transformation and The quality control and Data fitting and Computation of risk degree of wheat and Characteristic agriculture risk degree calculation and Data query and Application tools eight modules.Using system Several interpolation evaluated data,Reduplicate calculating coefficient of regression equation,To ensure that fitting meteorological data is the most close to the observed value.Using the risk assessment system of agricultural meteorological disasters to calculate the risk of agricultural disasters in Dong 'e,The following conclusions are obtained that wheat lodging meteorological disaster risk calculate according to the drought and flood,high temperature,low temperature,beating down four index.Wheat comprehensive agricultural meteorological disaster risk degree is between 0.47~0.51,The comprehensive meteorological disaster risk of each township is in the medium and high risk area.Characteristic agriculture oil with peony comprehensive agricultural meteorological disaster risk degree is between 0.25 ~ 0.65,comprehensive meteorological disaster is In low to High risk area.The Shandong Province meteorological data set on the towns was established that it distribute at 0.1°x0.1°,and Provides a basis for meteorological data sharing.The meteorological disaster risk models were established of some characteristic agriculture based on the observation and experiment meteorological disasters data,Provides technical guidance for agricultural production characteristic.