Research On Measuring And Analyzing Resilience And Its Driving Mechanism Of Regional Agricultural Water Resources System

With the growing of population and climate change,agricultural water resources system has been significantly affected,the soil and water pollution,the total collapse of water resources,desertification is serious and a series of water environment and ecological problems directly lead to imbalance of agricultural water resources system development,the outlook is not optimistic.The excessive exploitation and excessive development leads to the over exploitation of groundwater and land structure mutation,serious environmental pollution and unreasonable soil resource allocation,considering the sustainable utilization and development of water and soil resources,based on in-depth study of system resilience diagnosis method and driving mechanism,explore agricultural water resources system the resilience construction path is very important.This paper built farms of Jiansanjiang Administration as an example,the agricultural water resources system on 2014 the resilience measure evaluation,Through the screening of the key factors driving on the farm in 1999-2014 system evolution characteristics of resilience of regional agricultural water resources system is analyzed,and research for the construction of agricultural water resources in Jiansanjiang Administration.The main research content and conclusions are as follows:(1)According to the evaluation index system of choice model,construct the evaluation index system of Sanjiang Administration of resilience of agricultural water resources system,to ensure the completeness and reliability index calculation method of AHP test results of each index weight and PCA method using the CRITIC method,complete the final index reached 85.6%,the index number from 44 to 32 further optimization a,including temperature,evaporation,water modulus,coefficient of product water,water resources per capita and per unit area of farmland water resources amount,annual precipitation,water resources,water resources development and utilization,water supply module,reservoir pond share,intact rate,water supply facilities per unit area of farmland irrigation water,living water the amount,million yuan GDP water consumption,water conservancy research funding years investment growth rate,irrigation rate,emissions,the main pollutant emissions of in dustrial waste water in cities and towns Domestic wastewater emissions,pollution ratio,vegetation coverage,water ecological environment,urban green land irrigation quota rate,population density,emigration rate,population growth rate and the rate of cultivated land,public satisfaction,school-age children enrollment rate,the number of doctors per million people,the output value,agricultural water supply single household per capita net income of farm workers,involving society,economy and ecological environment of each system respectively,show that the index has a strong representation,can be a more comprehensive evaluation system of agricultural water resources in the local resilience.(2)According to the established evaluation index system of agricultural water resources system resilience,this chapter respectively by using the variable fuzzy optimization model and TOPSIS model to build agricultural water resources system resilience evaluation of 15 farms of Jiansanjiang Administration,based on the robustness and reliability of the diagnostic results selected variable fuzzy optimization model for the optimal measure system of agricultural water resources in resilience,more suitable for the evaluation of regional agricultural water system resilience.(3)According to the Jiansanjiang Administration of resilience hierarchy standard to determine 15 farm level of agricultural water resources system resilience,combining Arc GIS spatial data analysis technology,draw the building of agricultural water resources system in Jiansanjiang Administration resilience space mutation partition map.Building of agricultural water resources in Jiansanjiang Administration resilience presents us from northwest to southeast of growing trend: resilience for class for class I and class II mainly appear in sanjiang farm bureau in northwest area,there are a few in scattered distribution in the northeast;Resilience level for level III appeared in sanjiang farm Administration in central and eastern near ussuri river area,there are a few in scattered distribution in the north close to the heilongjiang and the songhua river area;The restorative level of grade IV and v-level farms is under construction in northeast and southeastern northeast and the ussuri river.Building of agricultural water resources system in Jiansanjiang Administration resilience space differences of water resources of river is mainly due to the geographical position of space distribution,temperature and evaporation capacity differences,economic development and the regional water resources development and utilization degree are different.(4)Using DEMATEL model respectively to analyze 15 farms of Jiansanjiang Administration,affecting each farm agricultural water resources system is the key to resilience driving factors,and on this basis,through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the farm agricultural water resources system,a comprehensive evaluation index system of resilience,and analyzes its evolution characteristics of resilience,the results showed: forward farm and two river during the period of 1999-2014 system of agricultural water resources in resilience continued to decline;In 1999-2014,the agricultural water system regained its strength and its fluctuation was smaller.The remaining 12 agricultural water recovery forces fell between 1999 and 2009,and the period between 2009 and 2014 increased.Combining with the key factors driving the agricultural water resources in the process of system recovery mechanism and the effect were discussed,and the resilience construction path,to maintain the farm agricultural decision reference for the system stability.