Assessment Of Resilience To Regional Agricultural Drought And Analyses Of Driving From Resources

Drought disaster is one of the world's heaviest disasters, which has a worldwide affection and usually leads to tremendous loss. In the recent decades, with the global change and social economy developing and population expanding, water resources scarcity is much more severe year by year. Water resources deficiency is much heavier, and more areas are afflicted by drought. The crop area affected by drought is increasing dramatically in China.Prevention and mitigation drought disaster have becoming one of the most important tasks. It is necessary for agricultural system to recover from drought through a series of advisable measures. Therefore, studying on drought is helpful to alleviate damage. It is no doubt that drought risk is caused by traditional notions which always separating natural recourses from social system. We proved that they are interactive and correlative, especially in resilience. So studying on resilience is not only significant for taking out strategies to reduce damage but also realizing agricultural modernization, social harmony and natural resources sustainable.Resilience to drought in agricultural system should not be omitted when being to improve the sustainability of agricultural system, which included the agriculture ecology, the production and the living conditions of farmers. It became clear that a lot of factors influenced agriculture system recovering from the loss after drought. The conclusions are:(1)The conception of resilience to drought was advanced. The resilience of agricultural drought system refers to the capacity that can recover from drought disaster losses and affection, which can be got according to positive responding activities, including the capacity of absorbing drought stress, sustaining the main function of agricultural system, self-organizing, restoring production and daily life. And there must be different in different space and time scale.(2)The factors influencing regional agricultural drought system's resilience come from three dimensions, including drought degree, agricultural resources, agricultural structure and disaster recovery. And the resilience assessment model was constructed.(3)By the assessment of agricultural drought system'resilience, we got the values in Xingtai city. The values in different regions are discrepant greatly, among which, the plain area has the highest resilient capacity, While in mountainous and hilly areas, the capacity of resilience is relatively low, According to economic satiation, the more developed, more income personally, more non-agriculture income, the better of resilience. And the comparison of resilience shows that resilience had been enhanced generally.(4)The driving for resilience to drought mainly come from water resources, land resources and social resource ,which carried out by the adjusting mode and ratio by human beings when using kinds of resources.(5)The notional model of driving balance was taken out which aimed at achieve the most benefit of each resources in the procession of resilience, and based on the sustainability of the resources. We deem that there is a complex function relation between the resilience to drought in agriculture and the quantity of water input and social changes or inputs ,which can be described by the mathematic formula. In this relationship there should be a point or more that the ratio of water input and social changes\inputs will be perfect which not only preserve the agriculture system in a perfect resilience degree but also the water resources and ecology kept in better sustainability.(6)If we want to reduce agricultural drought at maximum level, it is necessary to carry out the integrated measure. Human beings have to change their habit on overusing natural resources and adjust their behaviors according to the balance of resources in the procession of resilience. Therefore, the strategies of agricultural drought disaster reduction should be instructed by the notion of integrated risk management, and it is necessary to carry out the integrated disaster reduction pattern instead of the traditional ways.