Study On Resilience And Driving Factors Of Agricultural Drought System

As the world population growth, drought and water shortages, increasing ecological degradation, drought frequency, impact and loss were significantly increased. Preventing the risk of drought, reducing drought losses, guarantee food safety and ecological circle, establish a recovery of agricultural drought system has become the scientific community, governments and farmers focus concern. China have 1,396 million population, the development of industrialization and urbanization, drought and water shortages constraints becomes increasingly, especially in the north area. Understanding regional drought, the essence of drought, driving forces and processes, and establishing a agricultural drought resilience system is appropriate prerequisite for decrease agriculture drought disaster.This article choose Xingtai City as the study area. Reviewed and summarized the resilience-related research, discuss agricultural drought system resilience connotation, composition, characteristics, spatial and temporal scales, drivers, drought response and resilience, etc. By survey Xingtai agricultural operations and field, select 17 evaluation indicators, use AHP determine the weight of indicators, construct the evaluation index system and comprehensive evaluation model. Evaluated the resilience of(1989,1997)and the following year (1990,1998).According to the results classification the resilience, used GIS express the resilience distribution. Based on DPSIR conceptual model constructed driving mechanism analytical framework, determined the core driving factors. Use induction and deduction method analyze resilience-driven process. Construction driving-optimization conceptual model. Finally, analysis the characteristics of the region, proposed partition agricultural drought system recovery mode. The conclusions are:(1) Agricultural drought system resilience refers to the flexibility of agricultural system withstand dry strength, and recover from the drought-hit capability, in the natural, human and socio-economic areas there are elastic limit.(2) Agricultural drought system resilience is a dynamic process amount , the open feature determines the drought disaster Impact factors diversity; dynamic and nonlinear system determines the complexity of the recovery process, element or sub-system influence cross-cutting and multi-level feedback of the system. (3) Different spatial and temporal scales, the focus and contents of resilience were significantly different, the feedback from the recovery actions have a cross-cutting effect. Different decision-making levels have different response measures. Household level, disaster extent direct related to drought-resistant crop varieties and agronomic management options. On the local level,disaster extent related to irrigated land and water, the competitiveness of farmers, irrigation capacity. National agricultural policy, investment-oriented impact on agriculture will be evident on regional level.(4) The resilience comprehensive evaluation system include 17 indicators, effective irrigation rate is the highest weighting factor. Use evaluation model evaluate 1990, 1998, 1989 and 1997's resilience, the results showed that :The following year's resilience is higher than the drought year in each region , the overall resilience of Xingtai has improved; used GIS express the resilience distribution, point out the central region of Xingtai have the highest recovery capabilities, followed by eastern and western regions of the resilience minimum.(5) Pointed out that the resilience core driving factors are human, natural resources and socio-economic. People with active sense, take the initiative to recognize drought, learn and use advanced agricultural science and technology in the agricultural operation. Climate resources influence the crop planting structures and agriculture growth, water resources constraints irrigation, land determines crop production. Socio-economic structure and development level affect water resources utilization strength.(6) Construction driving-optimization conceptual model, in the process of agricultural drought recovery, the mainly dialectical relationship is between person and nature. Social inputs and natural inputs ratio decision resilience level. During agricultural system recovery, we must well handle the relationship between social input, achieve ecological, economic and social benefits uniformity.(7) Made agricultural drought system resilience partition mode, analyzed each district's natural background and economic conditions, according to driving mechanism analysis, drive optimization and dialectical Strategy as a guide, starting from the core driving factors, proposed of each district resilience mode.