The Vulnerability Research Of Agriculture Drought System Based On Experimental And Simulation Combined

Drought Disaster is one of the most extensive influence natural disasters of the world. With the intensification of global climate changing and human activities, the impact of drought in the world constantly increasing, food and water security problems have become more seriously. With the in-depth study of drought disaster, drought vulnerability is being more and more attention and emphasis, and research object gradually transferred to the interpretation, analysis and quantitative evaluation of vulnerability. Proposed of IDNDR deployment by the United Nations International, vulnerability assessment has played a pivotal role for the form of the proposed construction and engineering mitigation programs.Crops are the object of a direct effect in agricultural drought system, and analysis to drought disaster mechanism and process of typical area crops, is the guidance for instructional content and drought mitigation work direction. Vulnerability to drought affected by many factors, and is a product of natural environment and socio-economic system coupling in a particular time and space. Agricultural drought disaster reflects the adaptation, response and response capacity to drought of entire agricultural system, is the presence of drought vulnerability revealed and expression to agricultural systems. Based on the MCRW experiment carried out by Anhui & Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research, the relationship between relative yield and relative transpiration is analyzed. The thinking of vulnerability evaluation based on water shortage and loss of crop is set forth.According to the theory of natural disaster system and drought disaster risk system, the vulnerability which is reflected by the efficiency of drought is the intermediate conversion factor in the process of the occurrence and development of drought to the formation of drought disaster. Combined with DEA input output analysis theory, the risky of hazards, vulnerability of bearing body and disaster loss are the input factor, conversion and output, respectively. Under certain intensity factor effect, to the bearing body, the more disaster losses reflect the higher vulnerability, conversely, the smaller disaster losses reflecting the lower vulnerability. Dynamic vulnerability assessment model based on drought DEA is established, cropland test results and practical overview of the region is considered, indicators are selected, reasonable is analyzed, dynamic evaluation on agricultural drought vulnerability is implemented of Suzhou region.In this paper, the process and evolution mechanism of drought occurrence is analyzed, and the key factor of drought system intensifies, cause and damage are explored. From the perspective of regional trials and combination of simulated, the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of agriculture to drought is analyzed. The the thought of the way to implement it is put forward, at last, the vulnerability of Suzhou is calculated based on disaster efficiency.