Evaluation Of Vulnerability To Agricultural Drought Disaster And Study On Its Countermeasures

Drought disaster of one region results from its external drought risks and internal economy,society and politics vulnerability.Drought has bad effects to environment and humanity's productivity and livings.Drought vulnerability is the main reason to form drought.Under the same intensity of hazard-formation,loss caused by drought is directly proportional to the degree of drought vulnerability.Anhui province is a big agricultural province of our country,where exists big difference of geographical condition between the south and north of Huai River.Northern Anhui province is the main area where occurs drought disaster frequently.So research of drought vulnerability of northern Anhui province has important significance for reference of other regions in our country.The article analyzes the situation of frequent historical drought of northern Anhui province and the impact of drought disasters.Study the special formulation mechanism of drought vulnerability,and chooses 14 indicators referred to economy,society and politics.They are Financial loans and savings ratio,Rural per capita GDP,Rural per capita cash income and expenditure ratio,Agricultural GDP accounted for the total proportion of GDP,Health spending accounts for the proportion of total fiscal expenditure,Expenditure on education accounts for the proportion of total fiscal expenditure, Non-agriculture proportion,Average education attainment,Rural male proportion of agricultural labor force,The elderly and children total dependency ratio,Tax revenue accounted for the proportion of fiscal revenue,Financial expenditure accounts for the proportion of fiscal revenue,Total fixed assets investment,New agricultural fixed assets to the total newly increased fixed assets ratio.Checking Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province from 2006 to 2013, collecting the data of related indicators of Fuyang,Huainan,Huaibei,Bozhou,Suzhou and Bengbu total 6 cities of northern Anhui province.This article applies drought vulnerability as research direction and does fuzzy assessment of drought vulnerability of the 6 cities of northern Anhui province based on the analytic hierarchy process,evaluating the level of drought vulnerability of northern Anhui province and sort and obtain that agricultural drought vulnerability of Fuyang is the largest,following Suzhou,Bozhou,Huaibei,Bengbu and Huainan.Then apply principal component analysis methods to investigate the main factor that effects the drought vulnerability of northern Anhui province.The principal component analysis method extracts the main factors of drought vulnerability efficiently and assesses the level of drought vulnerability of northern Anhui province,the result is similar to the analytic hierarchy process method.So we can get the index effecting drought vulnerability more objectively.This text locates in the evaluation of drought vulnerability of northern Anhui province.Via collecting literature widely and analyzing concerned statistical yearbook based on related indicators.Combating drought should reduce risk level of external disaster-causing factors,lower internal level of drought vulnerability.By analyzing the bad effects on drought vulnerability to estimate agricultural drought disaster vulnerability.Breaking through the traditional external natural factors and focus on the methods of reducing the internal vulnerability of agricultural drought to evaluate the drought in Northern Anhui inherent potential risks,exploring measures to reduce drought vulnerability,taking appropriate ways to reduce its vulnerability,thus To reduce the harm and loss caused by drought,providing scientific index system and evaluation methods to measure the level of agriculture drought vulnerability of our country and offer reference of solutions againest drought to our government.