Research Of The Pattern Of China's Suicide Rate Along With The Change Of Social Economy

Objective : To explore China's suicide rate mode and characteristic of changing with socioeconomic status,analysis the sensitivity and the difference of urban and rural's suicide rates change of different age groups with socioeconomic status change,and provide scientific theoretical basis for suicide prevention interventions work of different people in China,at the same time to perfect our localization study of suicide rate.Method: By the national bureau of statistics official website,access to the per capita GDP as early indicators of the socioeconomic status,and to eliminate the influence of inflation,use the per capita GDP index to deal with it,the calculated date is the real per capita GDP,at the same time,to avoid false regression in analysis,use unit root test on the real GDP per capita,according to the result of test,make first order difference,finally use the calculated date that per capita real GDP increases as the index of socioeconomic status.Select the suicide rates data of urban and rural from China health statistics yearbook as an indicator suicide rate in our country.Have cointegration test,error correction model and granger causality test separately for different people groups suicide rate and real GDP per capita incremental,with Eviews6.0 statistical software.Results:(1)by 2013,China's urban and rural's suicide rate are significantly decreased.Chinese male suicide rate is greater than the female suicide rate and rural area's suicide rate is significantly higher than the the citie's.suicide rate of rural male is 1.63 times than urban male's and rural female's suicide rate is 1.67 times than that of urban female and rural male's suicide rate is the highest.ALL of the suicide rate of different gender and regions,present monotone increasing trend along with the age growth,only the suicide rate aged 85-89 of urban females is slightly lower than that in 80-85.(2)The long-term elasticity of China's suicide rate to increment of real GDP per capita is-0.775,the power of adjust short-term deviation to long-term equilibrium is-1.127.The long-term elasticity of urban male's,urban female's,rural male's and female's suicide rate to the real per capita GDP increment rate is respectively-0.852,-1.099,-0.396 and-0.739,the power of adjust short-term deviation to long-term equilibrium is respectively-1.198,-1.159,-0.837 and-0.837.(3)The long-term elasticity of Urban and rural's population in all ages to the real per capita GDP growth within the scope of-0.192 ~-1.73,the adjustment of short-term deviation to long-term equilibrium dynamics is in the range of-0.718 ~-1.418.(4)Granger causality test in lag phase 1,the real per capita GDP increment is the Granger reason of the overall suicide rate,urban male female's,urban and rural female's suicide rate,rural male's suicide rate is the Granger reason of real per capita GDP increment.When the lag period of 2 years,male's suicide rate of rural areas and rural female's suicide rate is the Granger reason of real per capita GDP increment.When rural male 35-39 years old,60-64 years old,70-74 years old,and rural women aged 25-29 and 45-49 age group in a certain lag,the suicide rate is the granger reason of LNdg,the urban population and the rest of the rural population that existed co-integration relationship with social economy all show that LNdg is the granger reason of suicide rate.Conclusion:(1)Some features of the suicide rate in China has been changed,the suicide rates have been got rid of the bimodal pattern,become the monotone increasing along with the age growth and rising curve.Male's suicide rate is significantly higher than female's.But suicide rate of rural is still higher than that in rural areas.(2)China's suicide rates are negatively related with the speed of economic growth,urban women aged between 30 and 39 suicide rate affected by the economy is maximum,and the rural male Older population suicide rate affected by the economic is minimum.(3)Most of the people's suicide rates change later than that of socioeconomic status,only a few of people's suicide rates change first.(4)The lag of China's suicide rate change and social economic fluctuations is about 1 year,a few people's suicide rates will change with socioeconomic status at the same time in the short term.