Research On Investment Risk Of Art In China

After decades of development,China's art market has become the fourth largest investment market after the stock market,the bond market and the real estate market.Because of its rapid development,at present,China's art market share has been ranked first in the world,and thus bring the investment risk can not be ignored.It is important to effective measure the investment risk that sort out the various risks and the causes of the risk of art investment.This paper first describes the related concepts of artwork,and points out that the works of art are unique,the value and the scarcity of the three characteristics,and then make a brief introduction to the artwork investment,and it is compared with stock investment and physical investment,with a clear understanding of the similarities and differences among works of art investment and other assets;Secondly,it analyzes the market of art investment in China,which analyzes from the three aspects of the scale of market,market structure and future development trend,and points out that the future of art market in our country will be steady in the direction of diversification,standardization,networking and internationalization.Thirdly,the risk of investment in China's art investment from the three aspects: one is the risks of art itself,including a fake risk,risk investment cycle,and takes care of the risk;the second is the risk of investors,mainly with their own knowledge and experience risk,the risk of the transfer risk,the risk of delivery capacity;third is the art market risk,including the legal and policy risks,the systemic risk of the macroeconomics,the risk of price fluctuation and the moral hazard;fourth,making a comprehensive analysis of the causes of art investment risk,mainly macroeconomic fluctuations,market development is not standardized,information asymmetry and the investor's own factors.In this paper,the GARCH-VaR model is used to analyze the rate of return on art investment.And then analyzes the inherent characteristics of the time series of the yield by constructing the painting index through the art auction market data,and finds that it can use the normal distribution to express the change of the yield.the sequence also has smoothness,but there is obvious autocorrelation and ARCH effect.Therefore,the GARCH model is established to eliminate the ARCH effect,finally calculate the VaR value,and test the degree of fitting.The results show that the VaR method can better measure the yield of art investment risk in our country,and the GARCH model can predict the volatility of the yield to a certain extent.The value of thecalculated VaR can also be a good measure of the maximum loss of the art investment.Finally according to the art market's current development status in our country,from the Angle of investors,government and financial institutions are given the corresponding coping strategies.