Research On Social Stability Risk Evaluation Of Large-scale Project

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of group events caused by construction project violates the normal social order gravely. Therefore, social stability risk evaluation of the large-scale construction project turns into a pressing problem to be settled in industry and academia. Firstly, this thesis analyses studies of social stability risk at home and abroad, and then summarizes and reviews the problems existing in the current studies based on the project risk management theory. Then, on the strength of literature exploring, this thesis defines and explains the concept of social stability risk in detail. Secondly, this thesis puts forward the initial list of social stability risk based on the exploring of existing various evaluation index system, and then builds large-scale project risk social stability risk evaluation index system after consulting senior experts and project managers. The system includes risk factors in 7 fields: legality and rationality, social security, economic interests, land acquisition, ecology and environment, management system and public opinion. Thirdly, this thesis compares the merit and demerit of the current various risk evaluation techniques, and then based on the Neural Network theory constructs the modified large-scale project social stability risk evaluation model, which combines Learning Vector Quantization and Radial Basis Function. The modified model is able to reflect non-linearity and complexity of the social stability risk and define the degree of risk. Then the thesis use sample data obtained by questionnaire survey to carry on the empirical test of the modified model, which confirms that the evaluation model is very accurate. Finally this thesis points out the deficiency of the study and the future direction.