Major Petrochemical Project Social Stability Risk Assessment Method And Index System Research

A country’s petrochemical industry as basic industries, high investment intensity, engineering and technology-intensive products processing chain length, the rapid growth of the national industrial output major contribution rate. Throughout the rise of global power are inseparable from the petrochemical industry support. Today, crude oil processing capacity of the petrochemical industry and ethylene production and steel production, power generation, etc., still is a measure of whether a country’s economic well-developed core logo. After nearly50years of struggle, China has become a universally recognized petrochemical big country, our country’s refining capacity in2011was second in the world, the domestic petrochemical industrial output value accounted for1/6, truly become a pillar industry of the traditional economy. However, as an " emerging and transitional " industrial, petrochemical big country to country from petrochemical powers also need a fairly long process. Collectively distribution petrochemical projects uneven production categories covering insufficient industry chain is not efficient is the bottleneck restricting China Petrochemical off. To break this bottleneck, we certainly need a comprehensive trade-offs, the implementation of strategic petrochemical projects.However, we must recognize that the implementation of the petrochemical project will adversely affect the community a lot, and will lead to stability risks include economic, political, security and other areas in the region, while the petrochemical project serious pollution, accident rate, and easy occurrence of a chain reaction, once accidentally, it will cause irreversible damage to the natural environment in the region. These characteristics determine its petrochemical projects are " sensitive projects " and therefore, for the pre-major petrochemical projects to promote the work they are bound to contain serious, prudent and responsible social stability risk assessment. Sides petrochemical project requirements we must seize the opportunity to catch up; they can not be rushed, go faster. Be under the guidance of the scientific concept of development and sustainable development ideas to fully consider the social effects, environmental effects and petrochemical projects. Trying to make the completion of petrochemical projects brought into production externalities can be accepted for the general public, in order to maximize the welfare of society as a whole.This article is to examine the impact of petrochemical projects from the source node stable society. According to the theory, the risk traced the source seize node, based on more complete coverage of the risk node on an assessment by way of constructing models of its social stability risk. In addition, the study found a large number of examples show that the impact on the natural environment by petrochemical projects in turn lead to social stability risk. Therefore, to assess the impact on the natural environment of petrochemical projects, is the top priority of social stability risk assessment, should have a veto effect. Therefore, this article at the time of the petrochemical project for social stability risk assessment, risk to social stability in its natural environment to be a separate field of study, and on top of the traditional assessment methods, proposed a risk-based perspective of the natural environment is stable carrying capacity risk assessment.Thesis consists of five parts:1Background and Significance of major petrochemical projects related research social stability risk assessment. Describes the current overview of China’s petrochemical industry and related concepts, a brief introduction to some of the projects of social stability risk theory and practice. This part is based on the reality of the need for social stability risk assessment studies major petrochemical projects to elaborate.2. Major petrochemical projects of social stability risk assessment analysis and presentation of related concepts of risk assessment mechanism to stabilize society. First, to clarify the major projects, major petrochemical project, a major petrochemical project risk bearing capacity of the natural environment concepts. To introduce the concept of carrying capacity of the natural environment in which the petrochemical project environment from ecological research done theoretical groundwork. Turn to social combustion theory, stakeholder theory and the theory of sustainable development were analyzed for later laid the foundation for a system to assess. 3. petrochemical project to build social stability risk assessment system. By social combustion theory, stakeholder theory analysis and build social stability risk assessment index system environment. Entire index system includes five level indicators and eighteen secondary indicators, these indicators can be selected more comprehensive, scientific, systematic risk points covering all aspects of the social environment. Through AHP, expert scoring method for index data processing model to determine the risk level and stable social environment petrochemical projects under the rule of thirds.4. Establish the risk bearing capacity of the natural environment petrochemical project evaluation system. On the basis of in-depth analysis of the literature, consulting practitioners petrochemical projects, petrochemical production characteristics and technical and economic characteristics of the project over a certain understanding, drawn19variable indicators. By ecological footprint model and build a state-space model risk bearing capacity of the natural environment logical model petrochemical projects, the use of this model, the natural environmental risk assessment of petrochemical projects will be transformed for the current project load carrying space to assess the state, thus determine the level of risk bearing capacity of the natural environment of petrochemical projects.5. Summary and Outlook. This section summarizes some of the findings of the foregoing, the important issue by constructing the index system found during the study were disclosed. And in the case with the current situation and put forward some suggestions for petrochemical projects of social stability risk assessment.