Political Risk Assessment Of The Bilateral Relationship In “One Belt One Road Initiatives”

This study will induce political risk factors according to the diplomatic events and related affairs between China and the Philippines.This research trying to establish a bilateral relations and political risk assessment system,which includes four levels of the target layer(criterion layer,feature layer and index layer,etc.)and 25 assessment indicators.A review of the 2010--2015 bilateral relations related events of Sino-Philippine as the sample,Combine with bilateral relations binding quantitative measurement method(Yan Xuetong,)and time series ARIMA model,analyze the bilateral relations at macro level.Current status of Sino-Philippine is inharmonious,I predicted that in the next period of time is difficult to improve the Sino-Philippine relationship.B&R Initiative needs to break through the difficulties.After macro-level quantitative analysis,this paper select AHP to assess the bilateral relations and political risk,the result is territorial sovereignty dispute of Sino-Philippine?the Philippine domestic anti-government forces and the South China Sea issue have become the main political risk and handicap of “One Belt One Road Initiative”.Base on the process constructivist theory,I suggest that China and the Philippines need to cooperate to establish a rule about the South China Sea.Base on “One Belt One Road Initiative” to foster collective identity.From cultural perspective to interpret the “Shelving differences and Seeking joint development” initiative.In sum,Sino-Philippine relations could be improved after resolve these problems and the political risk can be avoided.