Pathways For Energy Conservation And Emissions Mitigation In Urban Road Transport Base On COPERT Model

Due to the tremendous increase in the vehicle population,road transport is becoming a major source of air pollution emissions in the Jing-Jin-Ji area of China.In this research we apply the COPERT model to provide estimates of the regional fuel consumption,total amount of CO₂ emissions,and the emissions of five criterion pollutants(CO,VOC,NO_X,PM_2.5,and SO₂)and explore the mitigation potentials under six scenarios covering the period from 2015 to 2030.Our results suggest that:?1?fuel consumption,CO₂ emissions and pollutant emissions will experience considerable growth over the next 20 years,if no new mitigation policies are implemented.?2?Among the single policy scenarios,constraining vehicle registration?CVR?is the most effective measure for reducing fuel consumption,CO₂,CO and VOC emissions.By implementing the CVR measure,the Jing-Jin-Ji region can reduce CO₂,CO and VOC emissions by 33.5%?31.9%and 34.1%respectively in 2030,compared to a business as usual scenario.While strengthening vehicle emissions standards can achieve great reduction of NO_X,PM_2.5 and SO₂ emissions,achieving reductions of emissions by 73.4%?44.6%and 76.9%respectively in 2030.?3?We also found that passenger cars would account for most mitigation of CO,VOC and SO₂ emissions in the future,achieving reductions of emissions by 64.9%?67.6%and 76.4%respectively in 2030 under the comprehensive policy scenario.While heavy-duty diesel powered vehicles would accounts for most of NO_X and PM_2.5 emissions reduction,64.7%and48.3%respectively in 2030 under the comprehensive policy scenario.According to the analysis of our results,the paper puts forward some measures:strengthening vehicle emission standards,constraining vehicle registration,improving public transit systems,promoting electric vehicle penetration.