Changes And Tendency Of The US-Saudi Arabia-Iran Trilateral Relations Under The Middle East Transition

The Middle East Transition starting from 2010 was an important turning point in the region in which there were several countries experienced regime changes,and the regional order was facing a readjustment.The U.S.Middle East policy was the most important external factor in this regional order readjustment,and the regional great power,Saudi,and Iran,were seeking geopolitical influence in the region under this background,which made the trilateral relations experienced a complex development.This dissertation holds that under the two major factors,there are several specific factors that affect the trilateral relations: The change of state power caused by the Middle East transition,intrastate conflicts,the fight against extremist groups,the Iran nuclear issue,Saudi domestic reform and foreign policy changes,etc.After that,this dissertation divides the four stages of development in the eight years since the Middle East Transition,and each stage has different landmark events that affect the development of trilateral relations of the United States,Saudi Arabia,and Iran.Different interactive relations and game situation among three countries in those four stages illustrate the complexity of the regional order.The first stage is the occurrence of the Middle East Transition to completion of regime changes in Egypt,Libya,and Yemen.The main character of this stage is the game of political transition among three countries.Saudi Arabia and Iran sought to pull the transition countries into their own side to safeguard their regional interests under the contraction policy of the United States.The second stage began with the rapid expansion of the Islamic State and Rouhani's election.The main factors affected the trilateral relations were conflict in Syria,the Islamic State,and signing of the comprehensive agreement on Iran nuclear issue in this stage which can be seen as a rising period after Iran's policy changes.The third stage starts with Trump's presidency.The main factors of the changes in the trilateral relations during this period originated from the uncertainty of Trump's Middle East policy and the game between Saudi Arabia and Iran.During Obama's tenure,the United States has also aroused the dissatisfaction of its allies such as Saudi Arabia because of the thaw of US-Iran relations.After Trump was elected president,he tended to resume tough measures against Iran while Saudi Arabia tried to seize the opportunity to utilize the United States to control Iran.Overall,Iran has begun to play an increasingly important role in regional affairs due to the resolution of the nuclear issue.However,Saudi Arabia suffered various degrees of prejudice due to its pre-policies in Syria and Yemen,as well as its long-term downturn in international oil prices,and unprecedented financial difficulties,Saudi's regional influence is declining.The two Middle East powers started a new process of rebalancing,the United States,as a global power,still has a crucial influence on it.Judging from the future development trend,the regional pattern has gradually shifted from fragmentation to a balanced state of power and the trilateral relations will,therefore,move toward a more balanced direction.Through the dynamic analysis of the trilateral relations,this dissertation sorts out the development characteristics of the trilateral relations since the Middle East transition and uses it to judge the future trilateral relations and the development of the regional situation.