| As the most important part of society, people play an important role in the course of economic and social development.However, with the development of Chinese economy, the problem in population is more and more prominent, especially a higher proportion of older people, maked increasingly prominent of social contradictions and the economic situation more complicated.As a result,in China under the background of the history of the new normal and overall economy, in Nan Chang solving aging population will be conducive to new breakthrough in the search for economic growth in the new period.Based on the related theory of demography and economics,the paper use Comparison Method and Population-shift Algorithmas in the main object of study in Nanchang and analyse current situation and future trends of the aging population in detail.Then, it analyses indirectly that aging population impact on economy from the labor productivity, labor resources, savings, consumption and industrial structure.Finally,establishing Mathematical Model,using the ADF Test,Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test confirm directly that aging population impact on economy.Based on the research, this paper eventually formed the following conclusions:First,it has full access to the socity of aging population which is more and more serious during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.Census data compared with the international standard between in 2000 and in 2010 in Nanchang and it found that it has emerged the trend of aging population in 2000 and has full access to an aging population in 2010.there is a large gap which is in the proportion of the labor force and population dependency ratio in urban and rural population of Nanchang,which shows that the rural labor force in Nanchang has a large scale to transfer the urban phenomenon.According to the forecast results: in 2016 it is 12.63 percent in Nanchang more than 5.63 percent of international standards, and in 2020 it will reach15.91 percent.So the aging population of Nanchang is an important problem which urgently need to be solved during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.Second, the aging population will stop improving labor productivity of Nanchang,which hinder economic development;the aging population will reduce labor supply of Nanchang and is not conducive to the dividends on gain, which is not conducive to economic development;the aging population will improve savings rate of Nanchang and will impact the development of economic; the intensification of aging population will be made to enhance the level of consumption of Nanchang and will promote economic development; aging population will make industrial structure of Nanchang be more optimized and even improve the economic quality of Nanchang.Third,aging population will impact on overall economy of Nanchang,which is positive.According to Cointegration Test and regression analysis,we get a conclusion that the slowdown of population's growth will be good at the development of the economy of Nanchang,the impact of population aging on the economy of Nanchang is positive and aging population impact on economic results according five aspects which is the above mentioned.Fourth, the aging population impact on economy,which will has a significant lag effect.According to Grainger Test,we conclude that the aging population impact on economy,which cann't have an effect immediately,but need to go through a long period of time.Fifth, the aging population has a certain inhibitory effect on economic growth.According to the Impulse-response Functions, we can conclude that the aging population has a certain inhibitory effect on the economic growth, which is consistent with the second conclusion.Sixth, the aging population has a certain role in promoting economic growth.According to Analysis of Variance, we can get a conclusion that the aging population have the low contribution of economic growth,because it is the result of the positive and negative effects of population aging about the economy. |
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