Research About Population Aging On The Impact Of The National Economy

Population aging is mainly refers to an aging population proportion is rising of the social development process in the total population. Population aging is almost an inevitable product at a certain stage of human society development. The developed countries have experienced or are experiencing a population aging in the world. France had entered into an aging population in19th century, and the United States, Britain, Japan and other developed countries also successively entered into an aging population in the20th century. Developing countries, of course, is no exception. Population aging has an important influence on the economy, and this thesis has more and more get the attention of the world. To the effect of aging of the population, most scholars think that the effect of an aging population is negative. In the long-term, an aging population will cause that long-term economy growth slowing. There are, of course, some scholars think that an aging population has a positive impact on the economy. But they generally focus on savings, and ignore the impact on the economy in all.Since2001, Chinese65and older population have reached7.1%. This means that China began entering the population aging society. In2010elderly aged60and above in China are reached more than one hundred million to177million, and are the13.26%of population. At the end of2012, the number of Chinese old people aged60and above increased to1.94billion, accounted for14.3%of the total population. In2013, the Chinese elderly population ratio reaches to14.8%. The appearance of population aging is making Chinese population base and the double population problem of population aging coexist. Chinese has a far-reaching influence on the all aspects of economic and social.From study of general theory of population aging, this paper uses the method of combining quantitative and qualitative in consumption, theorizing about the impact on the aging of the population in aspect of saving, Labor market, the industrial structure, etc. Then by taking Anhui province as an example, according to the empirical data from1998to2012in Anhui province, the quantitative analysis is used to population aging on the impact of the national economy. In the end of this article, effective suggestions are put forward in view of Chinese aging population. More specifically, this paper can be summarized as the following five parts:The first chapter is the introduce, this part mainly introduces the research background, significance, method, framework, the literature review domestic and abroad, innovation and the insufficiency.The second chapter is general theory analysis. It basically introduces the status, characteristics and trend of the aging of the population, and then summarizes about the aging of the population in general economic theory, so as to provide theoretical basis for the analysis of an ageing population.The third chapter introduces impact path. It mainly introduces aging population to the labor market, consumption, savings, and industrial structure so as to affect the total GDP of the national economy.The fourth chapter is empirical research. In the first, through the gray correlation model analysis the relation of ageing population and the labor market, consumption, savings, industrial structure and the correlation analysis of GDP. Then using regression analysis, the chart shows analysis population aging impact on the Labor market, consumption, savings, industrial structure one by one, and the impact of GDP in size. Finally, using the DEA relative efficiency model to analysis the relative efficiency of Anhui province and other provinces of China to population aging.The fifth chapter is for the counter measures. In the first, this chapter introduces that the other countries (France, the United States, Japan) dealing with negative effects of aging population. Then according to the experience, this chapter puts forward to court advice adapting to China.