The Level Of Educational Development And Real Exchange Rate:International Experience And Chinese Reality

As an important indicator to measure the competitiveness of a country,the real exchange rate has a wide influence on the economic development of a country.In view of this,The research on the real exchange rate determinants has been deeply concerned by scholars at home and abroad.In the study of the real exchange rate determinants,it is divided into two kinds from the supply side and the demand side.The analysis of the supply side mainly includes the study of the real exchange rate fluctuation from the point of view of productivity and factor endowment,and the analysis of the demand side is mainly from the perspective of the demand structure and the angle of preference.In addition,it also includes the analysis of the supply side and demand side,such as income distribution,population age structure and so on.In the medium and long term exchange rate determination theory,the effect of the productivity factor is more important.As everyone knows,a country's education development determines the level of human capital to a large extent,and human capital and labor productivity are closely related to human capital,changes will certainly affect the productivity,and the change of commodity prices leads to real exchange rate changes,but most studies have ignored the research on the transmission mechanism of this effect,people pay little attention to changes in the level of education to the long-term trend of the real exchange rate.In this paper,we first select the panel data of 148 countries(regions)in the world for 1998-2013,and analyze the impact of educational development level change on the real effective exchange rate from the whole.The empirical results show that:the effect of comprehensive education development level of the real effective exchange rate is significantly positive,the endogenous Balassa-Samuelson effect of real effective exchange rate is not significant,which shows that the level of educational development promotes the appreciation of real exchange rate mainly through factor endowment effect?Then,under the estimation of the sub educational level,it is found that only the higher education has a significant positive effect on the real effective exchange rate,and the impact of the primary and secondary education is not significant.Then,the total sample is divided into panel data of 96 developing countries and 52 developed countries over 1998-2013 periods based on the income level,in order to study of the effects of different income countries on the comprehensive effect of the change of educational development level on the real effective exchange rate,the study found that the impact of educational development in the developing countries on real effective exchange rate is significantly positive,while the level of educational development in the developed countries has no significant impact on real effective exchange rate.At the same time,to explore the educational development level of impact on RMB real exchange rate,the paper also selected China in 147 countries(or regions)1998-2013 panel data,in the estimation of the total sample,found that the comprehensive effect of education developmentlevel of RMB real exchange rate is significantly positive,but the influence of the endogenous Balassa-Samuelson effect is not significant.Then,the education level is divided into different levels,it is found thatonly higher education has a significant positive impact on RMB realexchange rate and the impact of primary and secondary education is not significant.Then,the total sample is divided into China of 95 developing countries and 52 developed countries,It is found that the influence of educational development level on RMB real exchange rate is still significant whether in China to the developing countries or the developed countries.At last,this paper uses the panel data of 147 countries(or regions)to study the effect of educational development level on RMB real exchange rate in 1998-2013 years.The impact of China's educational development level on RMB exchange rate were changed obviously in 2005 and 2008,but the degree of influence is weakened;the impact on the real exchange rate of RMB did not change significantly in 2001.Given the relationship between educational development and the real exchange rate of RMB,China has just entered the "education" and "bonus period",so there is still room for appreciation of RMB real exchange rate in the short term.Based on the conclusion of this study and combined with China,put forward two suggestions:the first is to attach importance to the education level of development in determining the status and role of the RMB real exchange rate;the second is to improve economic structure,realize the transformation of economic growth mode.