Population Aging?balassa-samuelson Effect And China's Trade Surplus

With the rapid development of China's economy,China's population structure is also changing,the stage of the coexistence of demographic change and rapid economic development,it is a very important of our country's macroeconomic problem to study the relation between population structure change and economic development.In recent years,China's population has been aging and its trade surplus has continued to narrow,this paper focuses on the relationship between population aging and economic growth,and selects one of the perspectives to study the effect of population aging on external balance,especially trade surplus.In particular,based on the life cycle theory and the double gap theory,it is necessary to study whether population aging is the internal factor of the change of trade surplus.In addition,this paper believes that the Balassa–Samuelson effect may also be related to the change of labor structure caused by the aging of population,there are many reasons why the Balassa–Samuelson effect works,but this paper suspects that,in addition to inflation,the increase in labor costs caused by an aging population is likely to be the cause of the Balassa–Samuelson effect.In addition,the Balassa–Samuelson effect will have an impact on a country's trade surplus,therefore,this paper attempts to establish the theoretical logic between population aging,the Balassa–Samuelson effect and China's trade surplus,to investigate whether the aging population and the Balassa–Samuelson effect have an impact on China's trade surplus and the direction of its impact.In the specific research and analysis,this paper selects the national timing data of 1994-2015 and the data of China's provincial panel data as the research sample,and empiricizes the theoretical logic of this paper,the research mainly includes the following parts:First of all,this paper examines the effects of economic growth and population aging on wage levels by building a dynamic panel model,moreover,the reasons for the failure of China's wage growth to keep pace with the economic growth rate are analyzed,in order to verify the actual experience of China's economic growth.The results show that the economic growth is positively correlated with the wage level,but the wage growth rate is less than the economic growth rate;elderly dependency ratio is positively correlated with wage level;our country is in the transition stage of "low wage" to "high salary" at present,have been the focus of the future economic will aim to bring more effective demand by raising people's income,to further expand production,promote the sustainability of economic growth,it will become the main development direction.Secondly,this paper investigates the applicability of the Balassa–Samuelson effect in China from two dimensions.One is to study the population aging,wage level and real exchange rate in the same framework based on national timing data,the VAR model was established to investigate the dynamic impact path of these three variables in the long term to observe the specific influence mechanism between variables.The results show that the aging of population increases the wage level in the long term,and also causes the real exchange rate to rise,therefore,the rising wage level caused by the aging of the population is an important reason for the real exchange rate appreciation,that is to say,the Balassa–Samuelson effect in China is mainly caused by the disappearance of the demographic dividend.The other is to study the effect of population aging and labor productivity difference on real exchange rate by establishing a fixed effect model based on the data of China's provincial panel.The results show that the Balassa–Samuelson effect exists in our country,so that the ratio of productivity of the trade sector and non-tradable sectors increases,and the real exchange rate rises,at the same time,with the aging of the population,the rise of the elderly dependency ratio also makes the real exchange rate rise,with the trend of population aging in China,the trend of real exchange rate appreciation is likely to continue.Thirdly,this paper studies the effect of real exchange rate changes on import trade by constructing dynamic panel model.The results show that the real exchange rate appreciation will significantly increase China's import trade,that is to say,the relative purchasing power of real exchange rate appreciation can enhance the purchasing intention of residents and enterprises,that is,by importing goods or raw materials to enhance their own utility or reduce production costs.In the case of nominal exchange rate remained relatively stable,the real exchange rate appreciation,is equal to the imported commodities relative decline,the rise of China's domestic price level also will have certain inhibition.Then,the game model is established.The theoretical hypothesis is put forward: the improvement of credit level will significantly promote the export,by constructing dynamic panel model,the influence of population aging and regional credit level on China's export trade is studied.The empirical results show that the population ageing suppresses the export trade,improve the level of regional credit will significantly promote the export trade,and the improvement of regional credit can effectively ease the population aging inhibition of export trade,so in this paper,empirical results validate the theoretical hypothesis of this article.Because the integrity behavior of regional enterprises has positive externalities,that is,the integrity of enterprises can not only improve their own business performance,but also promote the overall export level of the region,this paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence for the integrity of government controlled enterprises.Finally,this paper studies the impact of China's aging population and the Balassa–Samuelson effect on China's trade surplus by building a dynamic panel model.The results of the study show that the emergence of the Balassa–Samuelson effect makes the tradable sector more advantageous in comparing the production of non-tradable sectors,thus promoting the net export scale;the increase of elderly dependency ratio significantly inhibits China's net export trade,that is to say,the deepening of the aging population will restrain China's trade surplus;higher Labour productivity will ease the effect of an ageing population on trade surpluses.From the perspective of reality,the trend of China's population aging is continuing,so China's external trade surplus will continue to narrow in the future,and the improvement of labor productivity is a positive and effective response.In conclusion,according to China's reality,this paper gives the corresponding policy euggestions to cope with the aging of the population increasing,such as: encourage birth two children,defer retirement age,establish and improve the old-age security system,strengthen skills training,encourage science and technology innovation,develop artificial intelligence industry and adjust the industrial structure.