Based On The Aging Population Mortality Prediction Longevity Risk Management Tools For Research In Our Country

With the continuous improvement of medical standards and sanitary conditions and the continuous improvement of people's living standards,China's population mortality rate dropped significantly,life expectancy gradually increased,resulting in a fundamental change in the population structure,making the aging population problem.According to the United Nations standards for aging countries,China has entered the ranks of aging countries in 2000,and at this stage of our pension system is not yet sound premise,the demographic structure of the aging will undoubtedly give the economy Development and social harmony bring a lot of pressure,the most important is due to the actual survival of the elderly over the expected age of longevity risk.The emergence of this risk will allow the government tools or insurance companies and other economic entities to provide endowment insurance pensions continue to extend the payment period,thereby increasing its burden.Therefore,how to accurately predict the ageing population mortality,by an ageing population mortality and the present situation of our longevity risk,to determine what effective measures and means to prevent and control the longevity risk is the future of China's government or insurance companies and other relevant subjects of pension reform and the design of endowment insurance products.Urgent need to solve the problem.Based on this,this paper will the prediction of mortality perspectives:longevity risk measurement and longevity risk management,so as to provide some reference and reference for domestic related research.Specifically,around the longevity risk measurement and management tools,this paper is divided into six chapters to analyze the contents of the six chapters and conclusions as follows:Chapter 1,introduction.First,the chapter introduces the research background,research significance of this paper,the research content,research innovation and deficiencies,and research literature review and the review;Chapter 2,overview the present situation of our longevity risk and management tools.First,the chapter according to the method of descriptive statistics to our country population aging problem description analysis,and then a brief introduction to the our country existing longevity risk management tools;Chapter 3,longevity risk measure-Predict an ageing population mortality.First of all,the chapter for different age groups and different gender of elderly population established their respective Lee-Carter model respectively,and then to our country in 2017-2021 elderly population mortality forecasting,the results found that in the next five years in our country is still facing more serious pressure of longevity risk,and male elderly longevity risk bigger,reasonable design of longevity risk management tools is essential;Chapter 4,the longevity risk management tools-longevity swaps,for example.In longevity swaps,for instance the chapter discusses how to through the capital market in our country to manage the longevity risk.First introduces the concept,classification and significance of longevity swap,and then draw lessons from the abroad longevity swap market development present situation;Chapter 5,longevity swap operation mechanism and the design of the pricing mechanism.First in vanilla longevity swaps,for instance the chapter expounds the operation mechanism of longevity swap,then analyzed how the Sharpe ratio method is adopted for longevity swap premium pricing,finally provides the application in our country from 2000 to 2014,a total of 15 years of ageing population mortality data to instances of longevity swap premium pricing;Chapter 6,conclusion.First this paper research institute to get the chapter summarizes the main conclusion,and then puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations;...