Longevity Risk Analysis Of Male Population-based On The Lee-carter Model

With the development of society, human life become more longer. Longevity is a signof social progress. However, longevity bring enormous pressure on social security, resultingin longevity risk. Although rapid economic development, china has not yet entered the ranksof the moderately developed countries in early years of21century. Family planning andimprovement of living standards has led to the rapid rise in the proportion of the elderlypopulation before they become rich. Thus, longevity risk as a systemic risk, is bound to havea significant and far-reaching impact on social and economic development.Population mortality forecasts is the first step to deal with longevity. Because thetraditional model of population prediction has many flaws, in1992Lee and Carter proposeda new population prediction model—Lee-Carter population model. The model is based onstatistics, and reduce the impact of subjective factors on prediction. Lee-Carter populationmodel has been widely used in national population projections.This article will try to use Lee-Carter Population forecast model on China’s malemortality—1989-2011Year male mortality on the basis of empirical data, determine thebasic characteristics of the sample data, extrapolate to predict2010-2025Male mortality,and explore the impact of longevity risk. Research results show that Lee-Carter mortalityprediction model fixs the country’s male population mortality forecast, but we still needmore observation and data support; China’s ageing mainly contribute to population structureand longevity, but population structure as the main factor in the short term;2025years later,men60+exceeds24%of the male population, china be in a deep phase of ageing;Longevity pension payments has the long-term pressure, and we should fully considered thedesign of pension systems.Structure of the article is as follows: Chapter I introduce background to the study,literature review, significance, method and so on; chapter II analysis impact factors of death,introduce the identification、forecasting of mortality and briefly evolution of the model;Chapter III discuss Lee-Carter Model and its mathematical meaning and applicability toChina’s national conditions, and apply this model to fit historical mortality data mortality.Fourth chapter use the prediction mortality data measuring China’s population structure,discuss longevity risk ‘effects of basic old-age insurance accounts and annuity market, try togive some answers to longevity risk management and suggestion in the annuity market.