The Analysis Of Industry Distribution Of Provincial Immigrates Based On The Gravity Model

Recently,the size of migration flows in China is growing quickly,whose impact on regional economic development is also increasing.Management of migration needs employment structure data of migrant and its demographic data.The employment structure data of migrant can be got through censuses and sample surveys,but the drawbacks of it are poor timeliness and high cost.The other way is through building migrant employment structure models.In the present,there is no migrant model on the entire Chinese provinces and the whole domain industries.Individual sectors model can’t meet the government and public analysis needs of full industry data under the current context of economic restructuring.So the purpose of this paper is to build a statistical model for migrant employment structure.Gravity model is commonly used in estimating the size of migration flows.In this paper,the improved gravity model is used to estimate the Industry Inflow Rate which reflects the employment structure of inter-provincial migration,and Industry Dependence to reflect the industry’s dependence on migration flows.It also estimates the industry inflow of inter-provincial migration and analyzes the provincial distribution structure and industry employment structure of inter-provincial migration from the provincial dimension and industrial dimension.Then this paper defines the Industry Concentration of Provinces to describe the industry employment concentration situation of inter-provincial migration,by which we can compare the industry inflow population with the need for the industry population,so as to give some data support to help the local government on population movements and their employment.In this paper,it also compares the 2010 and 2013 gravity model of inter-provincial migration.The analysis results of this paper show that inter-provincial migration are mainly engaged in manufacturing,wholesale and retail,and leasing and business services,and these three industries have higher proportion of inflow population in the labor.The size of inter-provincial migration fifers from industries and regions.In eastern region manufacturing concentration is not high,and it can attract more inter-provincial migration,while in central and western region only by improving manufacturing scale can they attract more inter-provincial migration.Compared with the model of 2010,the third industry attracts and dependents more on the inflow population in 2013,while result about the secondary industry is on the contrary.Finally,this paper puts forward several policy recommendations on the employment of migrants.