Research On The Effect Of Economy Development And Spatial Distance On Inter-provincial Population Migration In Jilin Province

The migration of population is a major impetus for the development of society. Itnot only affects the distribution and constitution of population, but also exerts greatinfluence on the economic and social development of the involved areas. The rate anddirection of flow is the result of many factors. The reasons for migration are alsovarious. Emigration stimulates the development of society. Meanwhile it will alsobring about some problems and negative impacts, for example, the shortage of laborforce, the brain drain, the desolation of land and decrease of productivity. On thecontrary, immigration will lead to the shortage of social resources and municipalpressure.Jilin province lies in the northeast of China, with Heilongjiang province,Liaoning province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as its neighbors. Whencompared with the southeast coastal provinces, the economic development of Jilinprovince lags behind in the aspect of speed, quality and structure, because of its inlandlocation. However, the economic development of Jilin province is very fast with adefinite increase in economic aggregate, which increased from183.219billion of1999to792.299billion of2009. The economic scale has been enlarging ever since.The fast development of economy will undoubtedly lead to the change ofmigration’s scale and rate of flow. According to the sixth census in the year2010, theinterprovincial immigration of Jilin province is about456.5thousand, while theinterprovincial emigration is about1372.8thousand. Compared with the fifth census,the number increased147.9thousand and764.1thousand respectively. With thedevelopment of Jilin province, the interprovincial migration is becoming morefrequent on a larger scale.The comparison of the data between the fifth and sixth census marks an apparent change in the rate and direction of flow. The data of interprovincial immigrationshows that the migration of the sixth census is456.5thousand, which increased147.9thousand compared with the fifth census. According to the location of the east, centraland west provinces, there is not great change in the ratio of migration population, withthe west having the least and the central having the most. The ratio of the central andwest provinces has increased to some extent, while that of the east has declined. Theinterprovincial emigration during the sixth census shows the total population ofemigration is about1.3728million, which increased764.1thousand. Emigration tothe east coastal provinces claims the majority, which adds up to80%of the migration.Emigration to the west provinces is merely3.19%of the total number. The directionof Jilin province’s migration covers all of region of China, with a high frequency tothe close provinces and the more developed cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.It can be concluded that the more developed area plays a pulling role while thebackward area plays a pushing role in migration. This thesis makes use of themigrating gravity model in order to analyze the interprovincial migration in Jilinprovince. In addition it combines per capita income into the model and takes theinterprovincial space length into consideration to conduct a regression analysis.According to the comparison between the fifth and sixth census, the gravitymodel has shown the power of other provinces’ pulling migration from Jilin provinceis becoming stronger, but the effect of distance gradually loses its control.Migration population is closely related to economy and space length. As a netemigration province, Jilin province not only needs to promote economic developmentto absorb talented personnel, but also needs to take measures to retain the talents.Only in this way can we realize the improvement of economy and advancement ofsociety in the long run.