Should We Consider The Population Age Syructure In The Caculation Of The Equilibrium Exchange Rate

The accurate calculation of the equilibrium real exchange rate has been the focus of scholars both at home and abroad.There are many ways to measure the equilibrium real exchange rate.The behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model is the most widely used theory.When measuring the equilibrium real exchange rate using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model,it is necessary to consider how to select the basic economic variables in the model.On the other hand,the age structure as the explain determinants of real exchange rate,has become the research object of the scholars.As we all know,the changing population age structure will influence the real exchange rate through different channels,and the literature supports that there is a close connection between real exchange rate and population age structure,the population age structure affects the real exchange rate through the Balassa-Samuelson mechanism of supply-side and demand structure effect of demand-side.Although most studies have pointed out that the population age structure has an important influence on the real exchange rate,ignoring that the population age structure variables is an important explanatory variables when we use equilibrium exchange rate model to measure the equilibrium real exchange rate.This paper focuses on the effects of population age structure on the equilibrium real exchange rate when measuring the equilibrium real exchange rate.This paper not only pays attention to the comprehensive influence of the population age structure changes on the actual exchange rate through different transmission mechanisms,but also pays attention to its comprehensive influence.This paper first describes the background and significance of the research,and introduces the relevant literature about the real exchange rate and the age structure of the population,as well as the relevant literature to calculate the equilibrium real exchange rate.In the calculation of the equilibrium real exchange rate,the chapter is divided into three parts,the first two parts are the equilibrium real exchange rate before and after the labor force proportion.The third part is the analysis and conclusion.Then the panel data from China and the world are used to examine the relationship between the labor population ratio and the real exchange rate,which confirms that the labor population share is closely related to the real exchange rate.Firstly,In the study of the relationship between working population proportion and the equilibrium real exchange rate,we use the BEER model to estimate the 30 countries' the equilibrium real exchange rate before and after the working population proportion from 1980 to 2015,then analysis the difference between two groups of equilibrium real exchange rate data.By observing two group of equilibrium real exchange rate data,we found that there has little significant difference between them in 30 countries,this result is called the equilibrium real exchange rate calculation puzzle.And then we select two panel data of 89 countries and regions in the world from 1994 to 2015,and empirically analyzes the relationship between the working population proportion and the real exchange rate.The two groups data's empirical results show that the working age population through three pathways integrated impact on the real exchange rate is positive,and the working age population proportion increases makes the real exchange rate appreciation,the working age population influences the real exchange rate mainly by Balassa-Samuelson mechanism,but current account mechanism is not significant.Then the explanatory variables in each country's cointegration equation is statistically analyzed,we found 26 countries'cointegration equation has productivity variables,and the remaining 4 countries without the labor productivity join the working population proportion accounted for the equilibrium real exchange rate variable is slightly larger than with productivity variable countries?This may be related to the effect of the Balassa-Samuelson on the real exchange rate.