The Influencr Of The Changes In Age Structure Of Population On Economic Growth In Chongqing

With the continuous development of social economy,the population age structure of Chongqing has experienced profound changes.A series of realistic problems,such as the slowdown in the proportion of the working-age population and the aging of the population,have aroused wide public concern.The age structure of population has become one of the important factors to economic growth.How to optimize the age structure of population to promote the sustainable and coordinated development of population age structure and economic growth has become a major challenge for Chongqing.Studying the influence of changes in the age structure of the population on economic growth also has great theoretical and practical significance.Based on this background,the literature research method is adopted to systematically search and summarize the domestic and foreign literature and related theories.Descriptive analysis is carried out on the characteristics of the age structure of the population in Chongqing.The change in the age structure of the population in Chongqing shows that the proportion of young people is decreasing,the proportion of the elderly population is increasing,and the proportion of the working-age population is increasing but the space is limited.The gross dependency ratio caused by the rapid decline of the children dependency ratio has decreased significantly,and the problem of population aging has become prominent.According to the internationally-accepted standard for classifying the age of the population,Chongqing has clearly entered the old-age society and is moving toward the deeper-aged pattern ? Modern economic growth theory believed that the main factors affecting economic growth are labor,capital and technology,etc.Labor input is mainly determined by the amount of labor supply.Capital investment is mainly decided by savings ratio in society.The technological progress in the very great degree is the results of human capitalaccumulation.Alteration in the age structure of the population will cause changes in the quantity of labor supply.Changes in the dependency burden of the working-age population will lead to alteration in the proportion of savings in the society.In addition,the proportion of the working-age population and the fertility rate will affect the accumulation of human capital.Therefore,this paper constructs the basic theoretical analysis framework from three perspectives of labor supply,saving and human capital accumulation.Then,an econometric model has been established and an empirical study has been conducted on the effects of changes in the age structure of the population on economic growth in Chongqing by using the ordinary least-squares method.Through theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper concludes as follows:(1)the rapid decline of children dependency ratio has led to a rise in household savings.On the one hand,the decrease in children dependency ratio reduces the burden on the working-age population.On the other hand,it reduces the household expenditure on children,thereby increasing savings and capital accumulation to promote economic growth.Contrary to the life cycle theory and the dependency burden hypothesis,owing to the common influence of bequest motives and precautionary savings motive,the old dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on savings levels.(2)The increase in the proportion of working-age population has a positive effect on the accumulation of human capital.on the one hand,The increase in the proportion of the working-age population will reduce the burden of social support,and the laborers will have more time and money for investment in education,which promotes the accumulation of human capital;On the other hand,laborers gain work experience in productive activities,increase labor productivity,and accumulate human capital through “Learning by doing”.In addition,the decrease of the fertility rate makes the children have more education resources and more education opportunities,which will also promote the accumulation of human capital.(3)The proportion of working-age population is positively correlated with economic growth.When the proportion of working-age population increases by one percentage point,economic output will grow by 5.0694 percentage points.Compared with capital input,the rise in the proportion of working-age population has a greater effect on economic growth.This suggests that the population age structure advantage isan important factor in promoting rapid economic growth in Chongqing.(4)The population dependency ratio has a negative effect on economic growth,and the negative effect of old dependency ratio on economic growth is less than that of children dependency ratio on economic growth.On the one hand,Old dependency ratio rises less,due to the relatively small increase in old-age dependency ratio,The burden of the elderly is still at a relatively light stage.On the other hand,due to the influence of bequest motives and precautionary saving motives,the increase in the proportion of elderly has not only not weakened the level of social savings,but has also promoted the increase of savings,which promoted economic growth,and weakened the negative effect of the increase in the elderly and the decrease in labor supply on economic growth to a certain extent.Since Chongqing municipality directly has been under the jurisdiction,the children dependency ratio has decreased rapidly.On the one hand,it reduces the time of non-productive activities of the working-age population and increases the market participation rate of the working population.On the other hand,reducing the expenditure for child care of the working age population can be used to save more income and increase accumulation to promote economic growth.It shows the important role of population age structure in the rapid economic growth in Chongqing.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results,combined with the actual situation in Chongqing,from the four aspects of improving the efficiency of the use of labor,enhancing human capital accumulation,the development of resources for the elderly and the development of old-age industries to provide suggestions for the future population and economy coordinated development of Chongqing.