A Study On The Predictive Validity Of English Tests In Mock Senior High School Entrance Examination

Predictive validity is a kind of validity,whose source is psychometric.Since 1900 s,it has attracted more and more attention of language test researchers in language testing.The predictive validity of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination is of great guiding significance to those candidates who are going to take part in the senior high school entrance examination.For teachers,it is the basis for the next step to adjust the teaching plan and focus on the student error prone points;for students,it is the basis for them to test their learning effect and find their "blind spot" in the course of English revision and correct it in time;for school,it can also be used as the basis for testing the teaching results of teachers,controlling the progress of English teaching perfectly,comparing the quality of teaching in various schools and promoting the improvement of teaching methods;school,parents,teachers and students will also try to predict the candidates' English scores by those tests.Therefore,it is necessary to study the predictive validity of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination,This thesis is based on the theory of predictive validity produced by Hughes,Weir and Bachman,using data analysis method,paper analysis method and teacher interview method to solve the two research questions:(1)what is the current situation of the predictive validity of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination?(2)what factors affect the predictive validity of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination? The author uses data analysis method to analyze the correlation between 1409 students' scores on the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination and scores on the English tests in senior high school entrance examination.English test in Six Jiaohe senior high schools.After the prediction validity is obtained,the test papers are analyzed to explore the factors that affect the predictive validity of the the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination.At the same time,the author interviews 36 middle school English teachers from six secondary schools to further confirm the factors that influenced the predictive validity of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination.4227 collected data were analyzed by SPSS 22 and EXCEL 2007 in order to find out the currency of the predictive validity of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination,two test papers were analyzed by the author and combined the consequence of 36teachers' interview,the results are as follow: and in order to explore the influence factors of the two senior high school entrance examination English mock tests for predictive validity,the author of the two of the senior high school entrance examination English simulation test analysis,combined with the interview results,the results are as follows: first,the score of two English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination is lower than the score of the English testsin senior high school entrance examination,which shows that the two mock English tests are more difficult than the English test.At the same time,it also indicates that students improve their ability through this period of doing mock tests.Second,the correlation of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination and English tests in senior high school entrance examination has reached a significant level of statistical significance,indicating that the predictive validities of two English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination are standard,but the predictive validity of the second English test in the second mock senior high school entrance examination is slightly larger than the predictive validity of the English test in the first mock senior high school entrance examination.Third,the factors that affect the predictive validity can be classified into three categories:(1)the difference in testing points between the English mock test questions and the English test questions;(2)the changes in students' ability to use language during the examination time interval.The thesis is divided into five chapters:The first chapter is the introduction.The main contents include the research background,purpose and significance of the predictive validity of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination.The second chapter is literature review.Firstly,the author introduces conceptions of"language test" and "language teaching”.Then,she briefly introduces the validity & validation model and the predictive validity & predictive validity verification mode,and expounds the theory of Hughes,Bachman and Weir.Finally,she summarizes the research status of predictive validity of English testing at home and abroad.The third chapter is the research design,which includes the research purpose,the research objects,the research methods,the data collection,and the research methods include the data analysis method,paper analysis method and interview method.The fourth chapter is the results and discussion.First,the prediction validity of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination is obtained;.Then the author through the analysis of English papers in mock senior high school entrance examination,the factors affecting the predictive validity of the English tests in mock senior high school entrance examination are obtained.The fifth chapter is the conclusion,which includes the main discovery,the limitation of this thesis and the outlook for future investigation.