Study On The Demand Of Long-term Care Insurance In China

China has officially entered in the aged society since 2001, there is a clear trend of the elderly population which is large in scale and quickly in speed. The traditional raise children to provide against for old age is no longer able to meet the needs of the people, so people pay more attention to the long-term care. Obviously the long-term care has high expense, therefore the long-term care insurance comes into being. But the long-term care insurance is still in the initial stage in our country. Considering the present situation that the real demand is low but the potential demand is huge, we study on influence factors of long-term care insurance demand, which has a very important significance in the development of the long-term care insurance, and for the insurance company to seize the new opportunities to develop their own business.The thesis analyses the current situation of the demand for the long-term care insurance, then drawing on relevant literature research methods at home and abroad.Firstly, from the aspects of theory, the thesis divides the impact of demand factors into four categories: economic, social, environmental and demographic. Secondly, in the empirical analysis, this thesis selects the time series data in 1990-2013 for the first three categories of factors, then through the co-integration test and establishing the error correction model; As for demographic factors, this thesis takes the Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan area as an example, uses the questionnaire survey to collect data,and establishes the logistic model. Through the analysis of the results of the model: the substitution effect of medical and pension insurance, inflation, the elderly dependency ratio of population, education, residence, number of children, all of these factors have significant influence on the demand for long-term care insurance. Then, the thesis emphatically focuses on aspects of the aging of the population, and predicts the potential demand of long-term care insurance from the angle of population trends.With the increase of long-term care service demand and rising costs of long-term care,the potential demand of long-term care insurance will be huge. Finally, from the angle of demand, the thesis puts forward some suggestions to good for translating the potential demand into real demand.