The Research On The Social Financing Scale And Monetary Policy Transmission Based On VAR Model

So far since 2010, it has been referred every year in our country that to strengthen the monitoring of social financing scale(SFS), maintain a reasonable amount and rhythm. Under the realistic background of deepening financial disintermediation,controlling broader SFS is the trend. However, the study on SFS and monetary policy transmission has just started. Therefore, researching the linkage of SFS and the three main financing with monetary policy transmission is meaningful both in theory and policy operation for regulating the size and structure of SFS and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy.This paper analysis the transmission process of monetary policy through SFS,called the monetary policy to SFS first order transmission,called the SFS to economy second order transmission,get via analysis the theory relationship of SFS,operation target of monetary policy and economic,are:the regulation of monetary policy to SFS is effective on the whole; a modest increase in SFS can not only promote the investment,but also can make the family wealth accumulation and promote consumption,and promote economic growth,but not necessarily lead to inflation.Based on theoretical and chart analysis,establish VAR model,and focuses on impulse response and variance decomposition analysis,draw the following conclusions:in first order transmission, SFS changes with base currency and M2 in the same direction, but reverse lending rates,effect of lending rates is more quickly, base currency is likely to influence SFS by M2, so needs time longer and bigger cumulative effect. In addition,base currency to RMB loans is more effective,lending rates to off-table loans and securities financing more effective.In second order transmission,SFS to fixed investment,social spending and industrial added value, sort on the extent and speed are investment, industrial added value,spending, and inflation rate of 85%above determined by itself, the impact of SFS is limited and lag longer. In the output effect, RMB loans>securities financing>off-table loans; in the price effect,RMB loans>off-table loans>securities financing.Lastly,paper proposes policy recommendations for improving effectiveness of monetary policy, are: improve statistical accuracy and scientific of SFS; speed up the reform of interest rate marketization; rich and comprehensively use monetary policy instruments; strengthen monitoring on the scale and structure of SFS.