An Evaluation Of Market-oriented Pricing Reform Of China's Electric Market Based On The Dynamic CGE Model

As one of the current hot issues in China, Market-oriented pricing reform of electric power has a significant impact on the long-term cultivation and sustainable development of energy market. The assumption of zero profit condition in traditional CGE model is greatly inconsistent with the actual character of electric power market in China. In order to deal with the problem, this paper introduces 3 kinds of pricing mechanisms into the dynamic CGE model with imperfect competition module. Then the paper designs 2 stages of pricing reform simulation scenarios, including the recent pricing mechanism of electric power product, the monopolize pricing of electric power product and the complete competition pricing of electric power product in electric power market, and further discusses its influence on the electric power market and economy growth. The results show that the setting of imperfect competition modules can explain the actual conditions of the output, price and profit changes in China's electricity market more exactly. And easily for us to research the influence on Chinese macro economy of electricity price increase with the theory about it and use Chinagem model.Through the find about how the way and the path of the electricity prices' influence on China.In sum this pricing reform is not only about the allocation of profits,and also relative to the long-term change in China's economic structure. Try to ensure that China's economic develop healthily and sustainable. This is the meaning of this paper.Base on the upside background and meaning of this paper. Firstly, The author recall the previous research and literature about this topic. Analyze the disadvantage of existing domestic electricity price mechanism. Then, based on mechanism about influence on China of electricity price fluenting, update the system database; make some creations on prevision Chinagem model. Introduce the domestic oil price depict mechanism, complete the theory model. The simulation of the reform in the present stage power price lower than the market clearing price, the second simulation of the reform in the sale-part power price higher than the market clearing price.After introduction of China's dynamic computable general equilibrium model(Chinagem Model)on the basis of carding the mechanism of the real tax burden's change how affects economy, this paper set an appropriate simulate scene and simulates a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of the dynamic effects of thereform nationwide from 2014 to 2020,including macroeconomic effects, industrial structure effects, energy conservation and emission reduction effects. The results show that: this reform will promote economic growth and improve the investment and consumption effectively, and so does the actual investment and consumption; make the price level tends to improve; accelerate the industrial expansion, employment of the first, second and espacially the third industry to increase. Cumulatively, which will promote industry transformation and industrial upgrading; Finally, the paper makes corresponding policy recommendations according to the results.