Research On The Dynamic Evolution And Pricing Mechanism Of Electricity Price In The Market Operation Environment

With the development of technology, economy and society, the power industry traditionally regarded as that with natural monopoly feature, has been undergoing a fundamental market reformation of deregulation and competition in many countries, in order to reduce the cost and price of monopoly industry and improve the social benefit. In the market operation, the electricity price is a core, and thus it is a very important task to effectively master and manage the dynamic evolution of electricity price and rationally establish the pricing mechanism, especially for the power market of China whose reformation is performed just now and not mature and perfect, it becomes more urgent and necessary.In this paper, with the help of the phase space reconstruction technique, the chaotic feature of electricity price in actual power market is firstly analyzed and verified. By extracting the main features of attractors and using the surrogate data method, it has been found that behind its seemingly random appearance, the electricity price follows definite regularity and order, and exhibits chaotic evolving characteristic. In order to further analyze the general feature and law of the dynamics of electricity price and make up the non-universality of the actual evolving curve, this paper establishes the dynamic mathematical model. The game theory of economics is introduced, and then the Cournot game dynamic model with bounded rationality considering transmission constrains is proposed, which is represented by the difference equations involving the maximization of social benefit of market. By means of the basic theory of nonlinear discrete dynamic system, the Nash equilibrium and its stability of duopoly Cournot game are analyzed qualitatively, indicating that in power market there are different Nash equilibriums in different market parameters corresponding to different operational conditions of transmission network, i.e., congestion and non-congestion, even in some cases there is not Nash equilibrium at all. The effect of some market parameters is discussed on the stability of power market, and the dynamic evolving behaviors of electricity price are numerically simulated in different market parameters, in which a variety of dynamic behaviors, i.e., the behavior approaching the equilibrium, the periodic and even chaotic dynamic behaviors are exhibited. In order to achieve the quantitative analysis and calculation of the dynamics of electricity price in power market with many oligopolists and node, bymeans of the nonlinear complementarity method in mathematical theory, the complex difference dynamic system is transformed into a set of familiar difference algebraic equations using the smooth nonlinear complementarity function. For the triopoly of power market of and the network of three node of power system, the dynamic behaviors of electricity price are numerically simulated in different market parameters.In the pricing mechanism of electricity price, this paper investigates the pricing problem of the transmission and distribution network with the natural monopoly feature. The definition of the transmission and distribution services and the makeup of the transmission and distribution cost are detailedly analyzed. In order to overcome these shortcomings of the existed transmission pricing, the three modes for the user-oriented transmission cost allocation are proposed based on the generator-sides, load-sides and power elements with the help of the power flow solutions and topological distribution factors to reduce and even completely eliminate the subsidy of users. On the basis of these research result, for the existed problem of the transmission and distribution cost calculation in the Hunan power system, the transmission and distribution pricing mode is proposed to fit the development need of the Hunan power market, that is, the syncretic pricing method of transmission and distribution is used based on the stamp method in the initial stage of power market reformation, and the individual pricing method of transmission and distribution is used based on the marginal cost and topological distribution factors method in the mature stage of power market reformation. According as the actual data, the transmission and distribution cost is accurately calculated.This paper tightly integrates the economic law of power market with the complex network characteristic of power system, and then investigates the dynamical evolution and pricing mechanism of electricity price in market operation environment, in order to provide helpful quantitative decision-making foundation for the management and operation organization. The findings possesses the theoretical value and policy inspiration in a certain degree for the healthy development of power market operation of China and the application of economics theory to the market with large monopoly network.