The Research On The Default Risk Factors Of Residential Mortgage Based On Survival Analysis

With the development of housing mortgage market, the default risk of the mortgage is more and more important and has become the foremost source of the credit risk of commercial bank. Currently, the management in lending the most commonly encountered one. Therefore, the mortgage has become not only the emphasis of commercial bank business expansion but also the highest proportion of loan business in commercial bank. Therefore, the identification of factors affecting mortgage default risk has a certain significance to the residential mortgage risk prevention and management which the commercial banks need.Review the related research, this article describes the reason of mortgage default risk and the factors. Survival analysis methods combined with the characteristics of mortgage data on 503 new mortgage sample data which comes from a commercial bank in Hunan. Firstly, survival analysis of life table method makes a general description estimate of the mortgage default risk. Life table analysis showed that mortgage default risk probability almost approaching 0 in the beginning years. While, the probability of default risk reached maximum at 6-8 years. Then, the risk has leveled off after that. After that, based on experience and theory, the article build Cox proportional hazards model. The results show that, gender, education, the marriage, loan term, interest rate, total loans and housing area size will affect the probability of mortgage defaults, men have a higher default rate than women; the higher the level of education the lower default rates of mortgage risk; unmarried people have higher default rates than married; loan term, interest rate, total loans and the housing area and a positive correlation with the probability of default.