Research On The Effect Of Supply Chain Disruption Risks And The Coordination In Dual Sourcing

With the improvement of science technology,the accelerated development of supply chain globalization and the lean management measures implemented and the frequent occurrence of terrorism and natural disaster, the probability of supply chain disruption risk is increasing and this kind of risk can bring huge losses to the enterprise. So,studying supply chain risk management, especially for its disruption risk and coordination management has great value in theory as well as practice.The paper started from reviewing related researches and articles about supply chain disruption risk, analysis of the supply chain disruption risks diffusion model, and puts forward four kinds of supply chain risk mitigation strategies such as the Supplier anagement,contract alliance, postponement strategy,inventory management. Then use event study to explore the Japan and China's auto industry stock price fluctuations about the 3.11 earthquake in Japan. Stock price affects are estimated by computing the abnormal stock returns around the date when the earthquake occurred. Regression analysis was used to identify factors that influence the stock market's reaction to the earthquake. At last, we develop a coordination model for a three-echelon supply chain with option and back contracts, the demand uncertainty?supply disruptions?surplus risk and shortage risks are also contained. We can achieve supply chain coordination by setting the corresponding parameter.This study has the following findings. First, the supply chain disruption which caused by the earthquake was significant negative impact on stock prices, and this effect will lasting a long time. The current ratio was not significant effect on this event, but the enterprises with higher inventory ratio and grass margin ratio can relief the negative impact of the earthquake. Second, the coordination model's optimal order quantity and profit are over than the decentralized model. Supply disruption risk and buyback factor do not affect the distributor's order quantity from the manufacturer which has low product price and unreliable operating ability, but the order quantity increases with the increase of option premium and option strike price. The distributor's order quantity from the manufacturer which has high product price and reliable operating ability increases with the increase of supply disruption risk, but decreases with the increase of buyback factor?option premium and option strike price.The enterprises can enhance its ability to resist risk through improve their own management ability. At the same time, Enterprises can combined with the actual situation to use the combined contract model.