Research On The Correlation Between Housing Price And GDP In China

This paper is based on the theory of housing prices and economic fluctuations,combining with previous studies,from the perspective of many problems that have not yet been systematically explained,the original data,the cyclical components and the trend components obtained from the decomposition are used as the entry point,and the relationship between housing prices and GDP is considered in many aspects.Sexuality,the sample range of 1998Q1~2018Q4 was selected.Firstly,the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition method was used to decompose the trend and periodic components of the residential housing price and total GDP in China,and then select the HP filtering method for comparison.The data characteristics of house price and GDP time series are used for trend research,and the correlation research is carried out on the basis of basic operating characteristics and basic facts of house prices and GDP.This paper firstly deals with three levels: raw data of residential house prices and GDP,and decomposition.The comparison of the similarities and differences of the periodic components and trend components is carried out,and then the impact-conduction effects are discussed from the three levels,and then the control variables such as monetary policy,inflation rate,real estate supply and demand,etc.,combined with VAR,SVAR model and other methods are further explored.House prices,GDP.This paper uses theoretical analysis,comparative analysis and empirical analysis to explore the trend of housing prices and GDP and its correlation from multiple perspectives.On the one hand,we can better clarify the long-term trend of housing prices,macroeconomics and cyclical fluctuations,and study the trend characteristics.It is of great significance to the economic operation.On the other hand,it can understand the similarities and differences between the original data and the decomposed data in a more comprehensive and systematic way,and before and after the multiple impacts such as the monetary policy,the difference in the internal operating rules of house prices and macroeconomics is even more A powerful explanation of the relationship between the two.Based on the above analysis,the main results obtained in this paper are as follows:(1)From the trend analysis,during the sample period,both GDP and house prices have a firm and certain trend.GDP has 7 cycles,the duration is generally 3years,and residential housing prices have 9 cycles,with a duration of 2 ~3 years.(2)This paper confirms that there is a two-way interaction between house price and GDP,and the trend component of GDP has a one-way effect on the trend component of house price and the cyclical component of GDP,that is,the trend of GDP determines the trend of house prices.But house prices have a significant impact on GDP.And from the analysis of the three angles,in the short term,the rise in house prices will be conducive to economic prosperity,and in the long run may inhibit economic growth.(3)At the macroeconomic level: quantitative monetary policy mr,price monetary policy r,inflation rate CPI,and real estate market level: real estate demand Inc,real estate supply HI impact,the cyclical component of house price and GDP HC,The interaction between GC and its trend components HT and GT is significant,which is a two-way causal relationship.(4)In view of the divergence of views among scholars in previous studies,this paper empirically analyzes that compared with the impact of quantitative monetary policy,the impact of price-based monetary policy on China's housing price fluctuations is higher,and the continued impact on economic operations is greater;and the impact of monetary policy will drive down the housing price cycle.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions from the national government level,industry level,and individual investors.It believes that we should pay attention to turning points and long-term and short-term,moderately and timely adjust monetary policy,formulate house price policies according to local conditions,and strengthen the industry's own supervision and enhance investors.Rationality,thus promoting an effective interactive feedback mechanism for housing prices and macroeconomics,and the three parties work together to promote the coordinated development of China's housing market and economy.