The Research Of Macro-economic Risk Conductive Path Under The Real Estate Price Regulation

For a long-term, the price index of China's real estate market is continually rising, which results the breeding of asset bubble. The above phenomenon not only brings about the frequent troubles of welfare conflict or unfair distribution, but also lays hidden danger of the sustainable development of our national economy. Based on the characteristics of the extension for the real estate industrial chain and the wildly impact on entire national economy, the risk of the real estate market will undoubtedly converge to the macroeconomic field through the transmission mechanism of inter industry, thereby triggering the macroeconomic risks. In this respect, our government frequently introduces the policies of price regulation and adjusts the policy orientation according to the different stages of the real estate market, in order to achieve the target of the promotion for a rational real estate price through the economic and administrative measures, therefore resolving the potential macroeconomic risk.Meanwhile, the recent problem of overcapacity is also the constraint of ordinary macroeconomic running. Moreover, the uncertain exit path under the over-capacity market mechanisms results the intensively resource mismatch. In addition, the overstock of over-capacity inventory and redundant construction lead to the difficulty of resource flowing to emerging industries. Therefore, all of the above restrict the enhancement of national economy efficiency and development of national economy. However, there is a closely relationship between the majority of overcapacity industry and the real estate market. Thus the risk of high real estate price in which the process of macroeconomic transfer will inevitably spread to the over-capacity industries, which may have positive or negative impact on the elimination of over-capacity industries.Based on that, on the perspective of the relationship between the real estate industries with over-capacity industry, this paper explores the macroeconomic risks triggered by the real estate price regulation via the conduction of overcapacity, which means that to integrate the real estate price and overcapacity into the same risk conduction model through the association of Industrial chain. In this way, it is not only beneficial to sort out the complex relationship between the national economies, but also prevent the dilemma of breeding the incentives of over-capacity while governing the real estate bubble, leading to the macro-control into a vicious cycle.This paper mainly uses the input-output data of 42 department and Input-output Price Effects model as an analysis of the main lines of the conduction path. On the basis of using the Correlation Index Analysis model and describing the relationship between the real estate industry and over-capacity manufacturing industry by empirical analysis, this paper resolves the conduction path which is brought about by upstream and downstream manufacturing over-capacity, leading to macroeconomic risks.Firstly, it analyzes the impact that the real estate price fluctuations created on each over-capacity manufacturing industry, as well as the overall spread efforts of macro price level resulted by each manufacturing industry stepwise, which is beneficial for refining the underlying causes that results different risk dispersion for each conduction path.Secondly, it integrates the two-conduction results so that we can intuitively demonstrate the overall impact on the macro level of price under the conductive price path. On this basis, by taking advantage of VAR model to explore the relationship between the general price level and the macroeconomic objectives (The selection of the primary objective of macroeconomic stage-economic growth, as described the indicator of macroeconomic risk), the paper further extends the price conductive path into the economic growth area, thereby clearly showing the impact on macroeconomic risk.Furthermore, on the basis of analyzing the entire conductive path, the paper sorts out the regulatory policy of real estate price in recent years and by describing the phase-out process of over-capacity each year in accordance with the inventory of manufactured goods on relevant over-capacity manufacturing industry, combining with the booming level of the macro economy, the paper finally investigates the goodness of fit between the real economic situation and the conductive path described above, in order to verify the conclusions of the article.Ultimately, under the guidance of conclusion for risk conductive path, the paper makes policy proposals on the perspective of industrial chain, preventing the speculation of real estate while satisfying mandatory requirements, in order to achieve the reduction of macroeconomic risks caused by over-capacity under the conductive model.