Forecasting Model And The Countermeasures For Unsalable Fresh Agricultural Products Under Chanel Obstruction

Agricultural products is different from industrial products,it has a short shelf life,perishable and other characteristics.In the past 10 years,China is seeing a massive unsalable agricultural products issues losses.Faced with unsalable agricultural products problem,most scholars focus on the causes and unsalable clear strategy,and the unsalable predicted related research is very inadequate.Accordingly,the paper draw traffic congestion and clear the theoretical prediction methods for fresh vegetables as the research object,trying to predict model unmarketable agricultural products from the channel perspective obstruction,it has important practical significance.First,a forecasting model of fresh vegetables at the original places is developed with help of construction of a sale plan's transfer proportion matrix in consideration of contradiction of supply and demand as well as capacity constraint of the wholesale market.Based on the proposed classification criteria on unsalable grades,two numerical simulation experiments are conducted for stable demand and fluctuant demand case respectively.The conclusion implies that the unsalable time of duration is irrelevant to plantation area and growth state;meanwhile the unsalable time of duration is more affected by plantation area than growth state.Secondly,consider the basis of origin in the local wholesale market farmers circulating on the introduction of foreign wholesale transit enter the amount of the local wholesale market,the competitive relationship between the amount of farmer selling vegetables by origin and transit between the amount of foreign wholesale deduced unsalable evolution,to further expand origin unsalable and predictive simulation model numerical experiments.The study found that the model can be derived by the extent of competition population block the inflow of foreign origin vegetable wholesale market for sales,market competitiveness play a decisive role in the evolution unsalable.Finally,the conclusion based on the wholesale market obstacle of fresh vegetables unsalable forecasting model,learn to clear traffic congestion traffic control ideas and methods,from two aspects to control inflows and stocks,such as,strengthening the organization of production management of construction,strengthening distribution channels,and strengthening the relationship between the distribution channels three aspects of governance,we made some unsalable clear strategy.