Empirical Study On The Driving Factors Of Our Country's Virtual Water Trade Of Agricultural Products

Since reform and opening,China's economy has been maintaining a high growth rate for a long time,the population has increased rapidly,along with the resources,the environment and other economic constraints also have been increasingly strong.The concept of virtual water supplies water managers with new thoughts to resolve water security problems,the relevant theoretical research has made considerable progress.Virtual water trade can realize optimal allocation of water resources among areas,and then improve water use efficiency,also is an important strategy to alleviate the regional water resources security,and has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development of water resources.However,due to the regional nature,economy,politics and other differences,which result in the choice difference of virtual water strategy in different regions.The implementation of virtual water trade is not suitable in every area,and then needs to be made timely adjustment according to the actual situation of areas.In addition,by virtue of lots of virtual water flows existing in the trade of agricultural products,accounting about 2/3 of commodity trade flows,the analysis of virtual water trade of agricultural products can generally reveal a regional water resources use.This paper uses the analysis methods of combination of qualitative and quantative,empirical and normative and other analysis methods,will mainly focus on the virtual water about agricultural products,summarizes and discusses the the driving factors which influnence virtual water trade of agricultural products in China.By selecting panal data in the 31 provincial administrative regions from 2003 to 2012,establish driving factors panal model of virtual water of argricultural product of nantion and three main regions,and conduct the empirical analysis and comparative study of the primary driving factors affecting the virtual water trade of agricultural products and the influence degree for every region.The research provides water managers with effective references to formulate various principals and polices,also plays an important role in alleviating regional water resources and argricultural products security.The results show that,the virtual water trade of agricultural products in China has changed from net foreign input to net foreign output since 2007,and the net output also has increased year by year slowly,but the overall output is not high.The main driving factors of virtual water trade of agricultural products in China are the per capita arable land area and crop yield per unit area,both of which have positive effect.There is a big difference between the driving factors of virtual water trade of agricultural products in the east-central-west region,the infuence direction and strength of the same index are different.According to the research results,the paper put forward four suggestions: 1)to reasonably plan allocation of water resources and the layout of grain structure;2)to strengthen scientific management of midwestern agricultural water,and improve their water use efficiency;3)to strength the introduction of agricultural production and management technology in western region;4)to control the urbanization of the eastern region,and speed up the pace of construction of ecological agriculture.