Industrial Structure Adjustment Of Agriculture In Shandong Province Based On Virtual Water Theory

As the global expansion of industrialization and steady growth in wealth, human increasing demand for the consumption of resources such as food, energy, water, land is leading to scarcity of natural resources, conflict and a series of environmental crisis."Only One Earth" was proposed on "United Nation Conference on the Human Environment" held in1972, that denotes human awakening about global resources and environmental problems. From the global scale of view, the natural water supply is adequate, but highly uneven distribution of water resources leads to water crisis in some countries or regions. The assessment of freshwater resources in World Resources Report in1977indicated that about1/3of people was living in moderate or severe water shortages country or region around the world. Global water consumption increased rapidly as6times from1995to1999, to gather statistics of a series of index modern human social development, a global study in2004shows that water consumption are showing exponential growth. Account for the current water used for agricultural is70%of the total global water consumption, water demand will become more intense with the increasing demand for food. Water needs in the21st century is undoubtedly the most pressing issues facing the world.As population growth, water resources situation in China is quite grim, Chinese Academy of Engineering projected that the per capita water resources in China will be reduced to1760m3in2030.In China current annual quantity of water is more than500billion m3, which will increase to720billion m3,we have to build more water conservancy projects to increase the supply of water, those projects will inevitably threaten freshwater ecosystems, seriously interfere with normal water balance.February2006, in "National long-term scientific and technological development tied by planning (2006-2020)" natural resources was paid great attention, water and mineral resources were listed in the top three natural resource problems, including optimal allocation of water resources, comprehensive utilization of water resources, synthetic water-saving and other issues as priority themes.Resources are limited but demand is infinite. Scarcity of resources will lead to conflict inevitably, while the development and utilization of natural resources will inevitably result in environmental and social burden, how to reduce the burden of development and utilization of natural resources under the premise of low-cost is gradually becoming hot issues. Initially, economists ignored the restrictions may beimposed by the limited natural ecological system, so they try to look for way out of the problem under the assumption of profit maximization. The concept of "sustainable" and "sustainable development" was submitted in1970s’and1990s’, which specified the development and utilization of natural resources and economic growth in the direction, then "Virtual water" came into being. Water resources is cleverly incorporated into human social and economic system from the system point of view, the presentation of Virtual water water resources opened up new ideas for development and economic and social development.Shandong Province is surrounded by sea in the eastern of China, which has abundant resources, and plays more and more important role in economic growth of China with rapid economic development in recent years. Shandong Province is a arid area in north of China, and conflict between water resources and economic development is growing so much that the development of agriculture has entered a bottleneck. Based on the study of virtual water theory, Regional economic development theory and the theory of economic development in industry, this paper discusses using Status of water resources and the industrial structure of agriculture in Shandong Province, then provides new reference for the whole North China and the national agricultural adjustment of industrial structure.This first part introduces background, objectives and significance of the research, and outlines the progress of international virtual water theory.The second part reveals irrationality in the current industrial structure of agriculture in Shandong Province based on discussing conflict in the existing industrial and agricultural water use.The third part is the core of this article, which summarizes the theoretical calculation system of virtual water, establishes virtual water accounts of major crops in Shandong Province, to analyze variation of virtual water on kinds of crops in Shandong Province, then find relationship between the virtual water and economic development in Shandong Province.On the basis of the previous analysis, multi-objective analysis model is used to build optimum programs of agricultural structure in multiple constraints of the economic, social, water resources, food production and so on, look for the way to scientific utilization of resources from the development point of view of resource management, so that feasible suggestions could be provided for the adjustment of agricultural structure in Shandong Province.