Study On The Price Fluctuation And Its Effect Factors Of Apple In Shandong Province

In recent years, the price of agricultural products fluctuate sharply, it severely affected the agricultural production in China and destroy the stability of the entire national economy.Now, the agricultural product commercialization rate gradually increased, and the degree of trade liberalization also increased year by year, the fluctuation of the price of agricultural products can be influenced by many factors, include the international market factor and the historical reason for long-term domestic.Apple is one of the most important economic crops in China, belongs to the dominant agricultural products in our country and is an important food in Chinese daily life, showing a high sentience to fluctuations in the price, therefore, the discussion and analysis of the price fluctuate of fresh fruit and analysis its effect factor is a great significance for the calculation and control of the market risk, so as to provide scientific basis for price stability policy of the government. However, apple's product costs, storage costs and labor costs do not stable, the apple price uncertainty makes farmers do not have a stable income directly affect Apple planting. Apple production and marketing decisions for famers become difficult, supply and demand in the market would also change.Shandong is a big province of China's apple production, In this paper the H-P filter model stripping out apple in Shandong Province of long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in trajectory, described and analyzed the characteristics and rules of the price fluctuate, understand the price of apple in Shandong Province is how fluctuations in the past to predict the future trend of fluctuation. Since 2000 to 2014, apple price have generally trended upward, while the 2014 has dropped the price of apples, based on the characteristics of the price fluctuation in 2000 to 2016, we can divided these years into four stages, namely2000 to 2005 price stationary phase, 2006 to 2010 price volatility phase, 2011 to 2014 continued to rise phase, 2015 to the 2016 price plunge phase. In addition, this paper use the multiple linear regression method to find the influence factors of Shandong province apple price fluctuations, Apple's cost of production factors, the level of demand at home and abroad,the state policy factors, as well as the price of the industry chain conduction will be factors inapple price fluctuate.All the results of the above paper described and interpret ate supply market conditions and demand conditions scientifically, provide a basis for decision-making for farmers' production and sales, and the paper advise the government on how to help the apple industry.