The Research Of Cotton Pirce Volatility In Shandong Province

Shandong Province as a big province for planting cotton and cotton textileprovince in China, both the cotton production and the cotton textile production areamong the best in the country. The cotton production is about one sixth of thecountry’s cotton production, and the amount of cotton textiles is a quarter of thecountry’s. The enough production and the high quality of the cotton in ShandongProvince to promote the development of the national economy. The cotton hasbecome a major economic crop industry in Shandong Province, and lead to thedevelopment of the rural economy, but also have great significance in increasing theincome of farmers in Shandong Province and employment. Therefore, the research ofcotton price fluctuations in Shandong, is not only to protect the interests of farmersincome, but also to promote the healthy development of the textile industry andclothing industry, and has a very important practical significance for maintainingsocial harmony.Cotton as a cash crop, it relates to the interests of the state and farmers livelihood.Over the years, the cotton price volatility in Shandong Province is very intense, due tothe lacking of timely and effective hedging instruments, resulting in the cottongrowers, dealers and cotton processing enterprises and other market parties inShandong Province losing huge economic benefits. Thus, according to the historicaldata of the cotton price fluctuations in Shandong Province, analyzing itscharacteristics and price volatility reasons of price fluctuations, will help to protectthe interests of farmers and promote economic development in our province, so as toform an effective cotton industry protection mechanisms in the province, according tothe province’s cotton market situation in the province to improve system security andhedging system. In the research of the cotton price fluctuations, majority of the peopleare from the price fluctuations of cotton production research perspective, the analysisof market risks, and propose preventive measures. However, the difference idea ofthis article is that at first based on the historical data of cotton price fluctuations inShandong Province, then use the price index and time for regression to analyze the characteristics of fluctuations in cotton prices in Shandong Province and analyze thefurther trend of the fluctuations in cotton prices in Shandong Province, thenintroduced the wave theory, including the internal and external shocks conductiontheory to study the mechanism of the cotton price fluctuations in Shandong Province.Through the multiple linear regression model to analyze the fluctuations in cottonprices in Shandong Province, come to the main factor of the cotton price volatility inShandong Province, and propose appropriate measures and policy recommendationsfor these factors.The first part is the introduction of this article, this section introduces theresearch background, purpose and significance of the cotton price fluctuations inShandong Province, then sort and analyze the main research results in this aspect athome and abroad, in order to highlight the topic of this paper and rationality, andproposed the research methods and techniques used in this study route, pointing outthe deficiencies that exist in the present study.The second part of this article, including the second and third chapters, this partare discussed on the basis of some relevant concepts and theories, and then focuses onthe historical data of cotton prices in Shandong Province, and analyzed the data usingtime series analysis of cotton prices in Shandong Province fluctuations in the overallcharacteristics, in order to launch the cotton price fluctuations overall trend inShandong, and predict the trend of cotton prices in Shandong Province.The third part is the fourth chapter of this article, this section use the internal andexternal shocks conducting theoretical to analyze the formation mechanism of cottonprice fluctuations in Shandong Province. At first use the external shock theories toanalyze the cotton crop growth cycle, the feeding behavior of producers, theproduction costs, the interest on the formation mechanism of the industry chain inShandong Province, and then use the internal transmission mechanism of naturaldisasters, international markets, macroeconomic policy alternatives prices, incomeand other aspects of the analysis, so as to arrive the formation mechanism of thecotton price fluctuations in Shandong Province.The fourth part of this article is the fifth and six chapters. This part at first to find the relevant data about Shandong cotton price volatility factors, and then use themultiple linear regression model to regress the factors affecting the cotton pricefluctuations in Shandong Province to find out the the main factors, including thecurrent year’s cotton production, natural disasters, production prices, the disposableincome of urban residents, the price of alternatives and appropriate to make somepolicy recommendations for these factors.