Study On Wheat Price Fluctuation And Its Influencing Factors In Shandong Province

Shandong province is the second largest grain producing area in China,and also the second largest wheat producing area in China.Since the reform and opening up,the price of wheat has fluctuated greatly,affecting all sectors of the economy and society.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the current situation and causes of wheat price fluctuation and explore the countermeasures and Suggestions to reduce the price fluctuation.Taking Shandong Province as an example,this paper firstly defines the concept of wheat price-related fluctuation and expounds the supply-demand theory,equilibrium price theory and other related theories.On this basis,the present situation and characteristics of wheat price fluctuation in Shandong province are analyzed.Then it theoretically analyzed the possible influence of sowing area,cost,substitute price and other factors on wheat price fluctuation,and empirically verified the influence of the above factors on wheat price fluctuation with multiple regression analysis method.Finally,the countermeasures to stabilize the wheat price were put forward.The research conclusions of this paper are as follows: the wheat price fluctuation in Shandong province is characterized by periodicity,symmetry and regularity,mainly from plan formation to market formation.Wheat production cost,substitute price,wheat production,consumption,trade and other factors will have an impact on wheat price fluctuation.Further empirical analysis shows that there is a negative correlation between total wheat production,planting area and per capita GDP and wheat price in Shandong Province.Consumer price index,producer price index of rice and wheat price in Shandong province are in positive change.The number of urban population,disposable income of urban residents,total wheat production,national corn producer index and other factors have no significant influence on the price fluctuation of wheat from the empirical results of the model.In order to stabilize the price fluctuation of wheat,this study puts forward the following countermeasures and Suggestions: stabilizing the sown area of wheat,improving the policy of agricultural support,standardizing the market of agricultural products and promoting the consumptionof substitutes.