The Research On International Cooperation Benefit Evaluation Model Of The Exploration Of The Shale Gas

As a typical unconventional gas, Shale Gas has changed the “Green Energy" revolution. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration(EIA), the amount of China's shale gas ranks the first in the world's total reserves. And the recoverable reserves of Shale Gas is about 36 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 23% of the world total reserves which makes the exploration and development of it quite attractive to the International Oil Companies(IOC). Not only do the International oil cooperation improve our deficiency of experience, technical and economic aspects in exploration of Shale Gas but also positively responds to the cooperation in the implementation of the national "going out" and "bringing in" strategy.The cooperation mode in China's shale gas project is a widely used typical international cooperation model-Production Sharing Contract(PSC). The core content of the contract is the sharing ratio and cost of upper limit of recycling. The cooperation of unconventional gas in our country can be dated back to the 1990 s, so compared with the more mature international oil cooperation, the international cooperation in China's Shale Gas projects is still in the initial stage, especially the obvious deficiencies in the fiscal terms of the contract. The income distribution in the fiscal terms of current production sharing contracts doesn't change with the variation of production and price but to adopt a fixed percentage. The cooperation mode, which adopts a fixed income distribution, may not be conducive to the protection of the optimization of our benefits, especially in the case of a sharp rise in prices and production. And it may also make the international oil companies get excessive profits, causing the loss of our country's resources and profits.This thesis regards China as a resource country and firstly studies the content and characteristics of our current international oil cooperation production sharing contracts and then include the key factors which can have effect on the profits of cooperation. Combined with our use of the product into the impact of the key benefits of cooperation Benefits of cooperation mode parameters: rates of the royalties, cost recovery, as well as the proportion of income tax rates into the analysis, we establish of the benefits of function model in the "bringing in" strategy which treats China as a resource country to calculate optimum parameters in the function model of international oil and gas under the random process of condition that oil prices are in line with Brownian motion process. Finally, this thesis uses the model to analyze case studies and evaluate it by examples. This thesis is based on the Shale Gas project in Fushun to Yongchuan of Sichuan province,using the future prices and annual outputof the oil and gas to calculateinternational oil and gas cooperation benefits,and analyze the feasibility of benefit of function model.Then discussing the model to verify the effectiveness of the presence of the model,using the future prices and annual outputof the oil and gas to calculate the best international oil and gas cooperation benefits function parameters in the model, and then infer the income tax provisions, which can ensure the best benefit in our country, and also ensure the moderate profits of the international oil and gas companies to get value both at home and abroad and then to evaluate and analyze the benefits function model.Through the establishment of the new benefit function model and discussions in this thesis, and when the oil and gas price follows geometric Brownian motion, we have found that there exists optimum parameters that can not only protect the biggest benefit of China as a resource country, but also can ensure the normal benefit of the international oil and gas companies. By case analysis, we can deduce the fiscal and taxation clause which can satisfy the optimal parameters to make our country as the resource countries get more benefit which increased by 3.5% than the international average efficiency and get more benefit which increased by 10% than the current efficiency At the same time, this thesis, which treats China as resources country in the international oil and gas cooperation has played an instructive part in the qualitative and quantitative research on earnings distribution, based on oil and gas prices in line with the geometric Brownian motion stochastic process and production changes under the distribution.