Dynamic Assessment And Spatial Differentiation Of Sustainable Utilization Of Marine Fishery Resources In China

As an important part of ocean resources,marine fishery resources provide essential protein for human beings,and provide economic benefits and social welfare for fisherman.Marine fishery resources is the foundation for sustainable development of marine fishery,marine fishery is one of the important roots for the marine economy development,so marine fishery resources sustainable utilization is essential for the development of modern marine economic.The recession of marine fishery resources is grim,along with the development of marine fishing technology,the increase of fishing intensity,as well as the expanding scope and deepening extent of marine pollution.Master marine fishery resources sustainable utilization situation,discover the problems existing in the development of marine fishery,and explore the alternative routes for realizing the sustainable utilization of marine fishery resources,which will optimize the management of marine fishery resources and prompt marine fishery developing towards the direction of sustainable.This paper introduces the research status of the evaluation for marine fishery resources sustainable utilization at home and abroad,and expounds the research significance;compare the quantification method of fishery resources sustainable utilization evaluation index system,proposing the comprehensive evaluation method of Projection Pursuit model(PP)based on Multi-agent Genetic Algorithm(MGA);construct the evaluation index system of sustainable utilization of marine fishery resources,estimating the status of marine fishery resources sustainable utilization for coastal 11 provinces from 2003 to 2012;introduce MGA to PP,use Kernel Density Estimation to analyze the time trends of marine fishery resources sustainable utilization,and measure the sustainable use space evolution among various provinces and cities,finally put forward some conclusions and suggestions.The main work and conclusions are summarized as follows:? Select the evaluation method for marine fishery resources sustainable utilization.Compare the advantages and disadvantages of Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),Grey Theory and PP technique,and AHP relatively rely on expert subjective judgment,and Grey Theory can exclude the interference of human factors,but not applicable for time series of dynamic evaluation.PP model is applicable to high dimension,non-linear,complex and dynamic system,who can overcome the drawbacks of human empowerment;the introduction of MGA can improve the calculation accuracy and avoid information loss,combining the complexity of the marine fishery system,select PP based on MGA to survey marine fishery resources sustainable utilization.? Construct the evaluation index system of marine fishery resources sustainable utilization.Marine fishery resource system is a typical complex system,which is closely related to the development of social,economy and some other factors,the index system shouldn't just consider the fishery and fishery resources themselves,the index system should be established to achieve the goal for both the human and the environment sustainability,so to divide the fishery resources system into three sub-system,the Resources-environment,Society and Economy.According to the completeness and pertinence of index selection principle,while considering the availability of data,select 23 strong correlation indicators to establish the evaluation index system.? Analyze the properties and weight of evaluation index.Use PP to explore the index properties,choosing MGA to optimize the projection vector,the optimal vector is obtained by Matlab simulation,and combined with the selected normalized mode to decide the index properties.The results show that,from the point of the projection direction,the quality of fishery resources and fishing intensity is the main influencing factor of sustainable utilization level,but with the gradual depletion of marine fishery resources,the effect of fishery resources quality is smaller,capture fishing technique,fishing intensity and structure of fishery industry gradually rose to an important factor.? Analysis of time sequence and spatial differentiation.According to evaluation results,using Kernel Density Estimation to measure nuclear density distribution and according to the calculation results,divide the spatial pattern into three types of plate.The results show that Shanghai belongs to high level zone plate,Tianjin,Hebei,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Guangxi belong to medium level zone plate,Liaoning,Shandong,Fujian,Guangdong and Hainan belong to the low level of zone plate;the overall marine fishery resources sustainable utilization presents unsustainable,specific shows that the time evolution is sustainable,the spatial evolution is unsustainable,spatial temporal evolution shows the polarization of unsustainable trend.