Big-data-based Research Of Folk Financing Risk And Early Warning

Folk financing market plays an indispensable role in economic developments?However,financial crisis become a big hidden danger for our economic healthy development due toits particularity its particularity market-economy status that it falls within the gray area of regulation?The folk financial has some characteristics such as spontaneity,high borrowing rates and unofficial contract lends contrast to the regulated financial institution,which makes it difficult to management? In order to avoid the harmfuleffects,we should establish a viable financing risk monitoring and early warning system to achieve real-time monitoring of private financial risks by observing the impact of related factors which depends on the changes of private financing market ? So we could detect some early warning signals before the risk and then take effective measures to control and against the occurrence of risk in time ?This article designs the folk financial risk index system of monitor model from interest rate risk,size risk,credit risk three angles and establishes a comprehensive evaluation system through screening some characteristics indexes which are based on the analysis of relevant factors on private funding markets from macro to micro and stability ? During the process,adjustment coefficients from the perspective of objectivity and subjectivity has been set to adjust each indicator: objective adjustment coefficient depends from the contribution rate of each factors to the risk on several stages;subjective adjustment coefficient bases on the state of satisfaction of each index and analyzed by efficiency coefficient method?We could get the final risk assessment results after the reasonable adjustment to judge the risk state of monitoring market,which based on several particular areas divided by relative approach degree to two comprehensive scores of the equilibrium market and unstable market?Similarly,it gives the corresponding zones of different state to each factor by analyzing the numerical results and it will provide necessary support for the theory through the research of relationship between the risk and the stability of financial market?At last,this article carry out the private financing risk index simulation analysis apply the released data of "Wenzhou private financing rates Index" ?Research indicates: During September 2013-April 2015,the Interest Rate Risk Index fluctuating downward trend,and the Size Risk Index maintain normal fluctuation around 1 in Wenzhou private financial markets?Besides,we obtains analog assessment value by using simulated data,which means the actual risk level of current financial market? So the risk of different extent would be make sure according to the comprehensive evaluation,and the feasibility of model has been confirmed?...