Study On Risk Assessment And Risk Early Warning Of Grain Family Farm Operation In Northeast China

With the development of industrialization and urbanization in our country,the traditional distributed small farmers management pattern already cannot satisfy the demand of agricultural modernization,and the scale management is the key to realize the agricultural modernization development,the family farm as an important part of the new type of agricultural management main body,is to promote the land scale management and the important supporting power of transformation of the mode of agricultural development.However,with the continuous advancement of China's agricultural supply-side structural reform,the operating environment of family farms has become more complex,which has an impact on the production,operation and stable development of family farms in China.The Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of Family Farm Cultivation Plan formulated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2019 clearly pointed out that the difficulties and common problems existing in the development process of family farms in China are risk prevention issues.How to avoid operation risks to the maximum extent and guide the healthy development of family farms has long-term significance.Therefore,whether family farm management risks can be effectively identified,prevention mechanisms can be designed,and the scale economy benefits of family farms can be guaranteed is an urgent problem to be solved.In recent years,academia and government departments have focused on the identification and development training of family farms,and there are few studies on their operational risk assessment and avoidance analysis.Northeast China has sufficient agricultural resources,and the development of family farms is a new force to realize the modernization of agriculture and rural areas.Under the guidance of relevant national and local policies,family farms have shown a good development trend.The superior agricultural resources in Northeast China provide a good resource environment,geographical advantages and a large scale of operation for the development of family farms.Family farm development in northeast China have their own advantages at the same time,face a higher technical efficiency is low and the market transaction cost a series of problems,as a result,relative to the small farmers and other parts of the family farm,unique grain growing period and geographic environment in northeast China,makes a natural family farm production face higher risk loss rate,And under the comprehensive influence of social environment,economic environment and policy environment,the occurrence of its business risk presents an upward trend.Therefore,how to effectively prevent food type family farm in northeast China business risks,how to develop the family farm management risk assessment and early warning system to build,helps to systematically analyze the family farm risk problems in the process of risk management,not only can clear family farms generating mechanism of management risk,also can promote the management of the family farm,Enrich the theoretical system of risk management and promote the in-depth cross-research of agricultural economics and risk science,which has certain academic value and reference decision value.In this paper,based on the theory of agricultural economics and risk management,comprehensive,objective recognition family farm management risk formation mechanism,using normative analysis and empirical analysis with the combination of research methods,in accordance with the "family farm operating characteristics-generated-risk recognition and awareness--warning evaluation-risk management strategy of effective evaluation of" the logic of thinking.(1)The risk of family farm operation is defined by combing relevant theories,and it is pointed out that the goal of family farm operation is to minimize input and maximize income,seek for risk avoidance and achieve the optimal combination of profits.However,information asymmetry and incomplete make all kinds of risk factors affect the realization of the goal of family farm operation.(2)By sorting out the research results of risk management theory,decision-making behavior theory and risk early warning theory,the theoretical framework of the research on the risk management of family farm operation is refined and formed.The connotation and extension of the risk of family farm operation are effectively defined.On the basis of clarifying the weak nature of the development of family farm and the operational risk,According to the research paradigm of risk science,this paper deconstructs the risk generation mechanism of family farm operation from the corresponding action mechanism,connotation and three-dimensional risk system factors.(3)From the perspective of farmers' business behavior,the risk identification and risk perception ability of family farms were analyzed,and the perception ability of family farm risk factors was taken as the explained variable to construct a binary choice model for empirical analysis.(4)in order to further explore the food type family farm the level of risk of major crops,combined with the national agricultural cost-benefit data collection about the agricultural production,the market price and income levels of related statistical data,using three years delay mobile variation coefficient,for growing type(food)family farm production and operation of corn,wheat and rice measured level of risk,Obtain the yield risk level,price risk level and the income risk level brought by it.The correlation analysis of the three risk levels shows that the income risk level is significantly correlated with the price risk level,but not correlated with the yield risk level,which indirectly indicates that the main source of the income risk of the current family farm food crop production in Northeast China is the price factor.Then,on the basis of risk measurement,a two-level and three-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was constructed by using the fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation method to evaluate the levels of policy risk,natural risk,market risk,technical risk and management risk in family farm operation.The model evaluation results show that the current risk level of family farm operation in Northeast China is above the medium level,including market risk factor >,natural risk factor >,policy risk factor >,management risk factor >,technical risk factor.(5)based on the family farm management risk identification and measurement,the building contains p source index and warning sign index of the family farm management risk early warning index system,according to the principle to determine the early warning alert degree,determine the standard for family farm early warning,based on unascertained measurement evaluation model and warning model of three-layer feedforward neural network evaluation method for family farms of early warning alert,And the sample family farm to carry on the early warning situation evaluation.Finally,based on the above research conclusions,specific and targeted risk prevention suggestions are put forward from the two aspects of risk management strategy selection and later guarantee.