| Real estate development plays a vital role in China's economy, But as real estate investment overheating in the past two years, leading to investment risks, financial risks are constantly raising. Since 2004, the real estate industry began to exercising macro-control, many developers lost funds and land resources. According to statistics, at present, continuous decline in prices has already begun in some region; the tight real estate market faces a direct result of increased financial risks. So either developers or a bank, to strengthen the real estate investment risk control is very important. But now in the process of real estate investment analysis, the traditional methods of risk analysis to investigate the risk are the sensitivity analysis and balanced analysis; these methods primarily include the following deficiencies:(1) They can only analyze the impact of risk, but it will overlook the possibility of the risk, so it can only evaluate impact for the project of the risk factor, it can not make the determination for the probability of occurrence.(2) Identifying the change scope of the risk factor is vague and artificial; so they did not give the probability of these factors change, it is lack of scientific nature.(3) They can only carry out single-risk factors for the project analysis, and do not consider risk factors shared between the relevance and impact. So they can not analyze number of risk factors witch have integrated impact to project.Therefore, the traditional methods of risk analysis can not analyze the risk exactly, and it can not be the scientific decision-making, although they are easy to operate. In an increasingly competitive market environment, using traditional methods will lead to decision-making errors, resulting in the failure of investment. So we need to find a more... |
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